I attended a financial symposium last week and interestingly enough all analysts present agreed that a US recession will come – sooner or later. Our experts too are expecting that. The market on the other hand assumes, just like the Fed, that a soft landing will be achieved.

A soft landing cannot be excluded. Each set of positive US data provides further fuel for this view. That is why the USD is in demand regardless of the conflict in the Middle East. However, this view is likely to be largely priced in which is why the Dollar will be able to benefit less and less from positive data and is currently having trouble to gain further ground.

And at some point, the million-dollar question will then be: who is right, the market and the Fed or the majority of analysts? That will also be decisive for the fate of the USD. However, we are only likely to find out in a few months’ time.