We are revising our EUR/PLN baseline forecast lower, starting with 4Q23. Our original 4Q23 forecast was 4.60, as many pre-election polls were indicating a strong possibility of a hung parliament. That scenario might have led to more costly fiscal promises, delays to EU fund disbursement, and potentially more NBP rate cuts. 

Our new 4Q23 forecast is 4.35, reflecting the higher probability of an earlier disbursement of EU funds, and what is likely to be a more hawkish NBP stance in actual decisions and verbal comments. Also, this should reflect a higher EUR/USD compared to current levels, as expected by our G10 strategists.