USD/CAD should remain primarily driven by non-Canadian factors: the USD performance on the back of US data releases, geopolitical events and the connected implications for commodity prices and risk sentiment.

While we still expect a turn lower in the pair on the back of a broad-based USD decline from the first quarter of 2024, we maintain a neutral bias (1.37/1.38) into December, with only some potential downside risks on the back of seasonal USD weakness into year-end.