A hold today is widely expected, so markets will primarily focus on the content of the monetary policy report. Despite likely attempts by the BoC and Governor Tiff Macklem to keep the hawkish narrative going, some downward revisions to the growth figures may open a window for CAD bonds to rally after the meeting, with the Loonie underperforming.

USD/CAD does not look like a screaming sell as it did back in early September, and we see more upside risks to the 1.38/1.40 area before converging to our year-end 1.36 target.