We have a mildly bullish outlook for EUR/GBP into 2024, but our call for 0.90 in the second half of 2024 is not particularly far above the outright forward.

Historical volatility is very low here and that is reflected in one year implied EUR/GBP volatility – now just 5.7%. This had traded as low as 4% in 2006/07 and we do not have any high conviction in saying that volatility cannot fall further. In other words, we are not looking for major swings in EUR/GBP.