October’s CPI data, along with the softish jobs number reported by the October NFP, suggest the Fed will again leave rates unchanged at its December meeting for the third successive meeting. This means the FFR would fall 25 bps short of the median projection made at the September FOMC meeting. 

For some time, we have believed the Fed is done with rate rises. Indeed, we think the real policy rate is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation to the Fed’s 2% price stability target.