Will the Riksbank dare to hike interest rates on Thursday? Economists at Commerzbank analyze SEK’s outlook ahead of the central bank meeting.
The Riksbank should hike interest rates one more time. That would constitute a surprise for the market and would provide additional support for the Krona. However, I can also imagine that it leaves everything unchanged and maintains a small likelihood of a rate step early next year in its rate path. That would mean simply delaying the rate peak a little in case inflation eases more slowly than expected.
If, however, it leaves rates unchanged without signalling the chance of a further rate hike, that would not constitute a major surprise for the market and would therefore have little effect on the Krona.