The S&P 500 should be in ‘buy-the-dip’ territory, as leading indicators for profits continue to improve. Yet, the journey to the end of the year should be far from smooth, as we expect a mild recession in the middle of the year, a credit market sell-off in 2Q and ongoing quantitative tightening.

The S&P 500 should provide positive returns in 2024 and we keep our end-2024 target that we launched last quarter unchanged at 4,750.