Economists at Commerzbank have updated their Euro forecast after the last European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
We expect the first ECB rate cut in the summer (June) and a total of 75 bps in 2024 and 25bps more in 2025. This is not much less than the market is pricing in – a total of 200 bps, but it is still enough to have a visible positive impact on EUR/USD.
With our ECB forecast, we still expect EUR-positive surprises. As a result, our previous price target for EUR/USD (1.12) looks more likely and even slightly under-ambitious. We are therefore moderately raising our EUR/USD price target to 1.15.