My best guess is that 2024 will be very challenging and that developments in the first six months will be defining for Europe, which is on the brink of recession. Still, if interest rates have really peaked and inflation remains subdued, I think that a soft landing – without a plunge in GDP and steep rise in unemployment – is the most likely scenario. If so, there is even a good chance that the economies could resume a stronger growth pattern towards the end of the year. 

At that time stronger purchasing power could thus lead to a renewed pick-up in consumer spending just as the expected large investments in the green and digital transition as well as increased defence spending would be able to stimulate the overall economy.