The Dollar will not fall this year because Europe is doing really well, or because the US is weak. It will fall (modestly) because the Fed will cut rates and the currency is coming down from a very great height.

However, after the excitement about how well the Euro performed in November/December it’s worth remembering that January has been its worst month on average since inception, and the Dollar’s best over the same period. Euro bulls don’t have any reason to cheer the passing of Blue Monday.