EUR/CHF looks too low to us. It looks to have traded down to these 0.9200/0.9300 levels on the back of the excessive pricing of the ECB easing cycle. Our team looks for a mere 75 bps compared to current pricing of 150 bps. If we are right – and given that rate differentials have been a bigger driver over recent months – we see EUR/CHF correcting back up to the 0.9500/0.9600 area.

We now expect the SNB to be FX buyers.

Geopolitics is a bearish risk, but macro favours a higher EUR/CHF.