The FX market’s strong focus on monetary policy, and the common refrain from major central banks that they think markets are pricing in rate cuts too soon, has helped EUR/USD meander around dispute a yawning growth divide.

If we were to see talk of a Fed rate hike (which is not in our forecasts at all) EUR/USD would fall. 

The lack of growth in Europe means that ECB talk of tightening is both very unlikely and a bad idea.