A more hawkish BanRep is helping the COP at the moment but external central bank hawkishness may help push USD/COP up towards our trading band. 

We think the COP will be largely driven by the external environment in the near term, given a quiet political backdrop at home and market comfort with Colombian uncertainty. But in the coming months, we expect BanRep to speed up its easing cycle and markets to pay more attention to the fiscal accounts. 

Therefore, we expect the COP to depreciate a bit to USD/COP 4,100 range.

USD/COP – Q1-24 4,049 Q2-24 4,078 Q3-24 4,102 Q4-24 4,116