- New Fitch Ratings modelling sees an upswing in US GDP growth, German contraction in 2024
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20 fevereiro 2024
New Fitch Ratings modelling sees an upswing in US GDP growth, German contraction in 2024
The Fitch Ratings agency has revised its 'Nowcast' modelling to track and forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
According to the ratings agency's release, a more accurate forecasting model now sees higher US GDP growth at 0.6% QoQ and German growth at -0.1% QoQ.
Key quotes
The enhanced framework introduces new nowcast models for the US, Japan and the eurozone ‘Big4’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
The new methodology employs a mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regression model, which uses monthly indicators to predict GDP growth.
The new models point towards a positive surprise for US GDP at 0.6% qoq (non-annualised), compared to our December 2023 Global Economic Outlook report, and a negative surprise for Germany at -1.0% qoq.
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