We have lowered the path of our Gold price forecast by $50 and only see XAU/USD rising to around $2,100 over the course of this year, which would leave it just below the all-time high of $2,135 reached at the end of last year. This is largely due to the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate far less in the coming cycle than we had previously expected. 

We now expect interest rates in the US to fall from the current 5.50% (the upper limit of the Fed Funds target range) to 4.25% by the end of 2025. Previously, we had anticipated a decline to 3.50%. The reason for the revision is our more optimistic view of the US economy, which is proving surprisingly resilient despite the significant rise in interest rates. Continued strong economic growth means that the US Federal Reserve should see less room for interest rate cuts.