With the RBNZ’s rate hike bias diminished, NZD/USD is vulnerable to a stronger Greenback on US data surprises today. 

Although consensus expects the US PCE core deflator to fall to 2.8% YoY in January from 2.9% in December, the Fed will be more concerned about the expected rise to 0.4% MoM from 0.2% for the comparable periods. 

If US initial jobless claims deliver another surprise fall, next week’s nonfarm payrolls could defy the consensus to fall below the 200K mark. 

During his semi-annual congressional testimonies on March 6-7, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will seek to discourage markets from repricing excessive rate cuts amid a resilient US economy, which the Fed worries could stall or reverse the progress achieved so far to restore price stability.