Thursday's FX focus will be on the ECB. Here economists at ING see some downside risks to the Euro (EUR).
For the ECB meeting, we identify three factors to watch: staff projections, communication and the conditionality for a June cut. If we were to pick from these the key drivers of the market, we would identify the ECB shifting to a balanced risk position on inflation and/or bringing forward the timing of a return to the 2% target (currently 3Q25).
We, therefore, see some downside risks to the Euro today. This can drag EUR/USD back to the 1.0850 area.