March’s meeting strengthened our expectation that the FOMC will make three rate cuts this year. By stressing the other possible reason to cut, a weakening labor market, it is clear that the Fed is aiming for three rate cuts, either because of greater confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward 2% or because unemployment rises. 

Nevertheless, there remains a narrow path to the FOMC remaining on hold for longer. There is still a risk that the Committee starts its cutting cycle later than June. However, we continue to pencil in the first rate cut in June. Once started, we expect the Fed to continue with one cut of 25 bps per quarter until a rebound in inflation caused by a universal import tariff imposed by a new Trump administration will cause the Fed to halt its cutting cycle during the course of 2025.