Consensus is firmly calling for a hold. We agree and markets are not pricing any move either.

Our view is that the Riksbank will revise the 2Q24 average rate projection to 3.95%, and have the year-end value around 3.50%. That would imply that a rate cut is possible in the first half of the year but is not a done deal. 

We also expect the message to reiterate data dependency. Ultimately, that should sound like a moderate pushback against May/June cut pricing, although SEK is facing some rather soft momentum and the simple fact that the Riksbank would signal the chance of a cut in 1H could keep markets attached to some expectations of a May move. 

EUR/SEK is, in turn, still facing some upside risks to 11.50-11.55 in the short term. But we like the chances of a sustainable move lower as early as April.