France hit the headlines on Tuesday as it reported the 2023 deficit at 5.5% of GDP, substantially above the 4.8% seen in 2022 and higher than the government target of 4.9%. We estimate that the deficit may well exceed 5% again in 2024.

The Euro has – however – remained shielded from the news as OAT spreads didn’t move much. Fiscal concerns should rise again as we head into the September budget in France, but we think the European Central Bank will be well into its monetary easing process, making the general environment for eurozone bonds quite favourable.

Looking again at this week, we do not see major catalysts for a break higher or lower in EUR/USD unless US core PCE surprises (consensus is clustered at 0.3% month-on-month). We think the pair can stabilise around 1.0850.