For this year, we expect expectations for Fed/ECB policy to continue to drive the direction in EUR/USD.

For both the Fed and the ECB we expect modestly more rate cuts this year than the market now anticipates. So we are somewhat more dovish than the market for both central banks and the difference with the market is roughly the same in each case. This would imply that EUR/USD stays close to current levels if no other driver presents itself. 

Our forecast for the end of 2024 stands at 1.1000.