Supply risks are back in focus for Crude oil with tensions building in the Middle East between Israel and Lebanon, while further ship attacks in the Red Sea reignite concerns, commodity strategists at TD Securities note.

Crude oil is back on the bid

“This comes at a time when algorithmic inflows had already been supporting the market after the OPEC+ driven selloff, and the firm price action has seen Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) back on the bid in WTI crude.”

“A renewed surge in our energy supply risk indicator can further support price action in the near term, however, the bar is growing higher for algorithmic flows to continue.”

“We still argue that the rally could start to fade as CTA buying flows taper off. Indeed, prices below $81.92/bbl would halt the WTI buying, and prices just below $81/bbl would see funds begin to liquidate the length.”