Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said recent data suggest that they’re getting back on a disinflationary path and that unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a policy reaction, BBH macro analysts note.

Fed policy might pivot soon

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recent data ‘suggest that we’re getting back on a disinflationary path. What we’d like to see is more data like what we’ve been seeing recently.’ He added that unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a policy reaction.”

“Elsewhere, Goolsbee said ‘If employment starts falling apart or if the economy begins to weaken, which you’ve seen some warning signs, you’ve got to balance that off with how progress you’re making on the price front. The unemployment rate is still quite low, but it has been rising.’”

“More and more Fed officials are expressing concern about the state of the labor market. We started to see this last week, when both Goolsbee and Daly hinted that Fed policy might pivot soon. Again, the Fed is certainly more concerned about the labor market than it's been in the past. If the data cooperate, we believe a September cut remains very much in play.”