The Dollar Index (DXY) initially rose 0.2% to 104.32 on the “Trump Trade”, but returned to last Friday’s 104.09. DXY needs to break below 104 to move towards 103, DBS Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

DXY turns up after Powell’s comments

“DXY appreciated slightly by 0.1% to 104.19 amid a 4.7 bps increase in the US Treasury 10Y bond yield to 4.23%. DXY initially rose 0.2% to 104.32 on the “Trump Trade” triggered by the assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump. However, DXY returned to last Friday’s 104.09 close in anticipation of a dovish interview by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.”

“Apart from expressing more confidence about US inflation returning to the 2% target, Powell said the Fed could lower rates before inflation hit the target, especially if the labour market weakened unexpectedly. However, DXY started turning up after Powell clearly stated that the Fed was not there yet to provide time-based guidance on rate cuts.”
“DXY needs to break below 104, the support levels in April and June, before it can think about revisiting the year’s low beneath 103. Meanwhile, the DXY’s upside is capped around 104.4-104.8 where its 200- and 100-day moving averages are located.”