In May, Copper supply exceeded demand by 65 thousand tons, with the ICSG reporting a supply surplus of 416 thousand tons for the first five months. Even though seasonal effects play a role here and the seasonally adjusted market surplus also reported by the ICSG was ‘only’ 250 thousand tons, Commerzbank’s commodity strategist Barbara Lambrecht notes.

High supply surplus on the Copper market

“The supply and demand figures published yesterday by the International Copper Study Group confirmed an amply supplied market for May and the first five months of the current year: In May, supply exceeded demand by 65 thousand tons, with the ICSG reporting a supply surplus of 416 thousand tons for the first five months.

“Even though seasonal effects play a role here and the seasonally adjusted market surplus also reported by the ICSG was ‘only’ 250 thousand tons, the surplus is still high by historical standards and already exceeds the expected supply surplus of 162 thousand tons that the ICSG had forecast in April for 2024 as a whole.”

“The main reason for this was the sharp rise in Copper refining production: around 6% more was produced worldwide in the first five months than in the previous year, primarily due to China's sharp rise in production, while demand ‘only’ increased by 3.7% during this period. Copper mine production in the period considered was still 4% up on the previous year: the ICSG expects growth of only 0.5% for the year as a whole.”