The Euro (EUR) is the third best performing G10 currency in the year to date, after the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD). The EUR is also the third best performing G10 currency in the month to date, supported by relief that the far-right were beaten into third place in France’s run-off parliamentary elections, Rabobank’s senior FX strategist Jane Foley.

EUR/USD is currently trading in the upper half of the range

“The biggest influence on the EUR/USD exchange rate in the coming months is likely to be the US election. That said, EUR/USD is currently trading in the upper half of the range that has held through much of this year and the numerous bad spots in the Eurozone’s economic and political backdrop argue in favour of downside risk. We see EUR/USD moving lower, potentially to 1.05 on a 3-month view.”

“This year, the EUR has largely shrugged off Germany’s sluggish production sector, France’s budget woes and the fairly widespread move towards right wing politics across the region. The Eurozone maintains a current account surplus which should offer the EUR some protection from speculative flows and a souring in sentiment.”

“That said, assuming no surprise lurch in ECB-Fed rate expectations we see little justification for the EUR to hold levels in the upper-end of its range. Now that a September rate cut for the Fed is priced-in, we expect EUR/USD to edge lower. The 200-day sma is likely to offer some support around 1.0813.”