Prices are more likely to overshoot to the downside, notwithstanding the likely overly pessimistic sentiment surrounding demand, TDS senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Demand sentiment may be nearing a local bottom

Our gauge of demand sentiment embedded within the cross-section of commodities prices is now nearing its lowest levels of the year. These levels are now quantitatively inconsistent with recent history, and considering macro vol has been fairly muted, commodity demand sentiment now appears oversold.

This is a massive shift from just a few short months ago when demand sentiment appeared extremely overbought, contributing to the speculative fervor that catalyzed a momentous rally in Copper prices. Today, we now estimate that 80% of discretionary length in the red metal has already been liquidated, and we now see signs that the top traders in Shanghai are notably covering their shorts.

That being said, CTA trend followers still hold a substantial amount of dry-powder to sell and now have only a narrow margin of safety against selling programs. In fact, our simulations of future prices also suggest that a flat tape can now spark large-scale CTA selling activity over the next week. Overall, this suggests that prices are more likely to overshoot to the downside, notwithstanding the likely overly pessimistic sentiment surrounding demand.