EUR/USD failed to hold intra-day gains on Friday as investors again struggled to take a clear view on whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50bp, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

EUR holds breath ahead of ECB  

“This week, the focus will be Thursday's European Central Bank meeting. Here, a 25bp cut looks like a done deal, while the quarterly forecast update should be the main takeaway. Any big downward revisions to back-year inflation forecasts could hit the euro, but such a change in forecast is far from guaranteed.”

“Expect EUR/USD to not drift too far away from 1.1100 over the next couple of days with the US election debate perhaps the first big driver this week.”