Earlier this week, we pointed out how EUR/NOK was substantially expensive close to the 12.0 mark, and that the risks of a correction lower were very high. That correction has materialised, and it is clear that the key engine for a NOK recovery at this stage is more dovish bets on the Fed, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

A further EUR/NOK depreciation to 11.60-11.70

“At 11.85, EUR/NOK remains expensive, but we still have to stress how the risks of speculative dynamics (favoured by slimmer NOK liquidity) will keep volatility on both sides quite elevated. We believe Norges Bank will remain focused on helping the krone and refrain from sounding dovish at next week’s meeting.”

“Ultimately, that can favour a further EUR/NOK depreciation to 11.60-11.70, and potentially to even lower levels if the Fed cuts by 50bp.”