Lower US yields and narrower US/Canada spreads are weighing on USD/CAD, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

CAD is supported by narrower US/Canada spreads

“Spot is pressuring the upper 1.35 area where the USD has found support on a number of occasions over the past couple of sessions. Firmer risk appetite and higher crude are adding to CAD support at the margin. USD/CAD fair value has edged lower to 1.3592 this morning, reflecting the sweep of factors shifting back into the CAD’s favour.”

“Wholesale Sales for July are expected to fall 1.1% in the month, in line with the Statcan flash estimate released with the soft (-0.6%) June data. Spot trends look soft on the short-term chart and the USD’s move back under the 200-day MA continues to give the daily chart a softer look.”

“But the USD is generating support around 1.3565 on the short-term chart and trend indicators remain bullishly aligned on the intraday and daily DMI oscillators. The CAD will have to put in a bit more effort—i.e., crack support at 1.3565—to improve and have a run at the low 1.35s. Resistance is 1.3605/25.”