Thursday’s ECB policy decision yielded no surprises, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Narrower EZ/US yield differentials push EUR higher

“Rates were trimmed 25bps, as expected, and President Lagarde’s ‘data dependent, meeting by meeting’ approach to future policy adjustment suggests no rush to cut again. With only limited data available ahead of the next rate meeting in October, a December cut looks the most likely way forward from here.”

“The EUR caught a modest bid off the outlook and EZ yields firmed a little. That, plus the dip in US short rates around the Fed outlook today has driven 2Y bond spreads to –138bps, the narrowest since May 2023, helping the EUR retest the 1.11 area.”

“Solid gains yesterday for the EUR and a high close on the week are complemented by some reinvigorated, bullish DMI signals on the intraday and daily charts. A push above 1.1125 consolidation resistance would signal scope for additional EUR gains in the short term at least. Support is 1.1055 now.”