The Bank of England's broad, trade-weighted sterling index is on its highs of the year, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.
“We are all waiting for a catalyst for the BoE's easing cycle to be repriced closer to that of the Fed – but no such catalyst has been forthcoming. That seems unlikely again today, where the flash UK PMIs for September are expected to continue outshining those in the eurozone.”
“There is a sense that long GBP positioning is quite extreme. Yet the latest CFTC data published last Friday and covering activity to last Tuesday (17 September) actually showed quite a large reduction in GBP longs from the speculative community. In short, the speculative market is nowhere near as long GBP/USD as it was long USD/JPY in early July.”