The start of the week has been quite mixed in FX, with the low-yielding JPY and CHF rising and the high-beta AUD and NZD under additional pressure, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

DXY to stabilize around 102-103 with upside risks

“The Chinese markets have reopened after a long holiday with another strong session as recent expansionary measures by Beijing continue to help sentiment in the region. That can weigh moderately on USD today, even though our view for the rest of the month remains generally constructive on the dollar, as discussed yesterday.”

“We have observed some quite limited spillover into FX from US 10-year yields hitting the 4% mark, which appears as the tail of the payroll-induced move that has already triggered some sizeable positioning readjustments in dollar crosses. There is a possibility that the FX market will take a break from being driven by rates now that the new, shallower 25bp per-meeting rate path by the Fed has become the market baseline.”

“Still, we’ll be on the lookout for surprise reads in the NFIB Small Business surveys today, where the hiring plan sub-index has had a decent correlation with private payrolls. Our call remains a stabilisation in DXY around 102-103 with upside risks, even if we see a slightly lower USD today.”