• EUR/AUD is probably reversing its trend and starting a new downtrend. 
• After it peaked on October 31 it formed a bearish candlestick reversal pattern which is currently playing out.  

EUR/AUD has started to fall after forming a bearish Shooting Star Japanese candlestick reversal pattern (red-shaded rectangle on chart below) as it peaked on October 31. 

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 

In addition, a bearish down-day followed the day of the Shooting Star and added confirmation. 

Since then, EUR/AUD has continued selling off and there is evidence it is now in a short-term downtrend. Given the principle that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation lower. 

The next target is at 1.6400 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), followed by the cluster of major SMAs underneath at around the 1.6350s. 

The pair may have completed an “abc” three-wave Measured Move pattern at the October 31 highs, further adding to the evidence a down cycle is likely taking over.