The Bank of Japan announced policy, delivering a rather cautious hold which has been digested as a dovish surprise by markets, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Direction of travel for USD/JPY looks clearly towards the 158/160 area

“Consensus was indeed for a hold today but probably expecting more openness towards a hike in January. Governor Kazuo Ueda sounded more data-dependent than forward-guidance-orientated, saying additional information on wages and growth is needed.”

“USD/JPY has surged through 155 on the back of the hawkish Fed and a hesitant BoJ. The direction of travel looks clearly towards the 158/160 area – an area where the BoJ has sold close to $100bn this year in previously successful attempts to stabilize the yen.”

“We presume the incoming US Treasury will not mind this intervention given that Japan will be trying to support its currency. And back in 2019, the US Treasury labelled China a currency manipulator for allowing its currency to weaken.”