European gas prices jumped to the highest level since October 2023 yesterday as unexpected supply disruptions and colder weather forecasts worsened the supply threats in an already tight market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Rise in carbon prices is supporting the upward rally in gas

"TTF front-month futures rose over 6% to close above EUR51/MWh as of yesterday as market participants remained concerned about volatile supplies of liquified natural gas following the recent production issues at some export facilities affecting fuel flows."

"Meanwhile, the heating demand is expected to increase as temperatures are forecasted to drop over the coming days. Additionally, a rise in carbon prices is also supporting the upward rally in gas. Looking at inventories, the European gas storage is now only about 55% full, down from 72% at the same stage last year and below the five-year average of 62%."