And it now looks like USD/CAD is the FX market's lightning rod for the tariff story, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

Tariffs are not merely negotiated away in Canada

"This is evident in the FX options market, where the one-month skew for USD calls and CAD put options remains high at 1.7% vols in favour of CAD puts – not far off the last January peak near 2.00% vols. Investors are clearly worried that tariffs are not merely negotiated away in Canada."