- Japanese Yen reverses intraday dip against USD amid divergent BoJ-Fed expectations
Notícias do Mercado
Japanese Yen reverses intraday dip against USD amid divergent BoJ-Fed expectations
- The Japanese Yen regains positive traction after touching over a one-week low against USD.
- Bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates further continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY.
- Expectations for further policy easing by the Fed undermine the USD and weigh on USD/JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a one-week low, around the 151.00 mark against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Monday, though the downside remains limited amid hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations. In fact, investors have been pricing in the possibility of more interest rate hikes by the BoJ, which pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) to its highest level since November 2009. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned last week that the uncertainty about US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and their impact on the global economic outlook require vigilance in setting monetary policy. This, in turn, is holding back the JPY bulls from placing fresh bets and lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for this week's important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later during the North American session this Monday.
Japanese Yen draws support from hawkish BoJ expectations and modest USD weakness
- The recent data from Japan showed solid economic growth and sticky inflation, which reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Japan will hike rates further and continue to lend support to the Japanese Yen.
- Japanese media reported that the BoJ could face pressure to hike interest rates from the US if the White House concludes that the JPY weakness is linked to the central bank's monetary policy.
- The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was finalized at 49.0 for February, slightly higher than the 48.9 flash reading and marking the softest contraction in three months.
- US President Donald Trump confirmed his plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday and announced plans to double the 10% universal tariff on imports from China.
- The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on Friday's strong move up to over a one-week high touched in reaction to the crucial US inflation data and further exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
- A report published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index edged lower to 2.5% in January from 2.6% previous.
- Adding to this, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.6% on a yearly basis during the reported month, down from 2.9% in December.
- Investors have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting short-term borrowing costs in June and see another interest rate cut in September.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus later this Monday, though the focus remains on the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
USD/JPY faces rejection near 151.00 support-turned-resistance; seems vulnerable
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair stalls last week's recovery move from its lowest level since October 2024 near the 151.00 horizontal support breakpoint, now turned hurdle. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering from lower levels – are still holding in negative territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Hence, a subsequent fall, back toward the 150.00 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling below the 149.80-149.75 region will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the pair back toward the 149.00 mark en route to the 148.60-148.55 area, or the multi-month low.
However, a sustained strength beyond the 151.00 mark could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 151.70-151.75 intermediate resistance, towards the 152.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the 152.40 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will suggest that spot prices have bottomed out and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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