Notícias do Mercado

2 outubro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus: the euro rose on Draghi comments

    The European single currency rose sharply against the U.S. dollar against the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi 's press conference and obtain a vote of confidence in the government of Italian Prime Minister Letty . Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has changed his position , supporting the ruling coalition on Wednesday, after the weekend ordered the five ministers of his political party to leave their posts.

    At a press conference after the ECB decided to leave rates unchanged at 0.5 % in October , Mario Draghi said that the rates will be left at this level or even lower for a long time. Central Bank will keep accommodative policy to support economic activity in the eurozone. Inflation in the euro area is low and should remain at this level in the coming months. Upside inflation risks associated with high indirect taxes and raw materials, and the downside risks stem from weaker growth. During a session of questions and reports Mario Draghi reiterated that the Governing Council of the ECB rate cuts discussed during the meeting. He also assured that the Central Bank was prepared to use all available tools , including the LTRO, to stimulate lending.

    The pressure on the dollar strengthened after data showed that the number of jobs in the private sector in September rose less sharply than expected. According to ADP, the number of jobs increased by 166,000 last month.

    The pound rose against the dollar amid anxiety caused by negative developments in respect of the U.S. budget . Recall that has not resolved the issue with the U.S. debt limit increase . In order to avoid a default that could happen on October 17 , Republicans in the Senate and the Democrats in the White House to reach an agreement .

    Note that the pound could not prevent even the weak data on the UK , which showed that up to September growth in the UK construction sector unexpectedly slowed.

    According to the report, the purchasing managers' index for the construction sector fell in September to a level of 58.9 , up from 59.1 in August. Recall that the August figure was highest in six months. Add that to the experts according to the average value of the index was to rise to the level of 60.1 . However , despite the decline , the index remains above the 50 mark for the fifth consecutive month , signaling a dramatic expansion of the total production in the construction sector.

    Meanwhile , the data showed that all three of the construction sector recorded a higher level of activity in September. Residential construction was the strongest with branches , and the last production growth was the fastest since November 2003 . Commercial construction , meanwhile, increased by the highest rate since May 2012 , and the growth of civil construction activity fell , retreating with the August high .

  • 15:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, September +5.5

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3430, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3530, $1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3615

    GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.6000, $1.6035, $1.6100, $1.6200

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.40, Y99.50, Y100.20

    AUD/USD $0.9350, $0.9600, $0.9610

    USD/CAD Cad1.0295

    GBP/JPY Y155.50, Y158.85

    NZD/USD $0.8360

  • 13:15

    U.S.: ADP Employment Report, September 166 (forecast 177)

  • 13:07

    European session: The yen rose against the dollar significantly

    Data

    01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m August -4.7% +3.4%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August +10.8% -0.7% -4.7%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August +28.3% +12.3% +7.7%

    01:30 Australia Trade Balance August -0.77 -0.45 -0.82

    08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction September 59.1 60.1 58.9

    11:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks

    11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%


    The euro exchange rate against the dollar holds tight in anticipation of today's meeting of the European Central Bank , which will be held in Paris for the first time after the statements of the president of the Central Bank , Mario Draghi , the willingness to introduce additional cash into the banking system . We also note that in today's meeting, the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent.

    Note that , according to experts , Mario Draghi will once again rely on the power of his voice , but will not announce a change of policy . He will try to regulate European banks in the early stages of economic recovery.

    "The President of the ECB will refrain from the larger volume of the infusion of money into the financial system to the currency bloc as long as the promise of future action keeps interest rates on the market under control," - said economists from Berenberg Bank to Nomura International Plc. - "Last week, Draghi told investors that the launch of the long-term refinancing operations is possible, but other politicians at the moment deny this possibility ."

    Meanwhile, we note that many market participants are awaiting today's release of statistics on the employment market in the United States . According to the median forecast of economists , the September change in the number of employees from ADP, will exceed the previous value and will make 177 thousand new jobs.

    The pound rose against the dollar amid anxiety caused by negative developments in respect of the U.S. budget . Recall that has not resolved the issue with the U.S. debt limit increase . In order to avoid a default that could happen on October 17 , Republicans in the Senate and the Democrats in the White House to reach an agreement .

    Note that the pound could not prevent even the weak data on the UK , which showed that up to September growth in the UK construction sector unexpectedly slowed.

    According to the report, the purchasing managers' index for the construction sector fell in September to a level of 58.9 , up from 59.1 in August. Recall that the August figure was highest in six months. Add that to the experts according to the average value of the index was to rise to the level of 60.1 . However , despite the decline , the index remains above the 50 mark for the fifth consecutive month , signaling a dramatic expansion of the total production in the construction sector.

    Meanwhile , the data showed that all three of the construction sector recorded a higher level of activity in September. Residential construction was the strongest with branches , and the last production growth was the fastest since November 2003 .

    Commercial construction , meanwhile, increased by the highest rate since May 2012 , and the growth of civil construction activity fell , retreating with the August high .

    The Japanese yen has increased significantly against the dollar, which was due to concerns about the U.S. budget , which continues to put pressure on market sentiment . Note that the USD / JPY pair continues to fall for the second day in a row, having lost about 150 points after peaked at Y98.72 before the U.S. announced to stop the government's work . Later , the employment report ADP, which will be published at 12:30 GMT will attract attention of investors , as the release of NFP, scheduled for Friday , has been canceled due to interruption of the administration.

    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in a narrow range

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6228 , and then decreased slightly

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.25, but later recovered to Y97.50


    At 12:30 GMT the euro area will be the monthly press conference of the ECB . At 23:30 GMT Australia will release the index of activity in the service of the AiG in September.

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3700, $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600, $1.3550/55

    Bids $1.3500, $1.3475/70, $1.3462/59, $1.3455/50


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6260, $1.6235/40, $1.6228

    Bids $1.6185/80, $1.6120, $1.6100, $1.6060/50


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9480, $0.9450, $0.9425/30, $0.9390/00

    Bids $0.9320, $0.9300, $0.9280, $0.9250


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y133.45/50, Y133.20/25, Y132.80, Y132.40/45

    Bids Y131.50, Y131.00, Y130.80, Y130.50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y98.45/50, Y98.20, Y97.95/00, Y97.75

    Bids Y97.00, Y96.55/50, Y96.20, Y96.00


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8450, stg0.8420, stg0.8390/00, stg0.8388

    Bids stg0.8335/30, stg0.8320, stg0.8300, stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8200


  • 12:45

    Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, 0.50% (forecast 0.50%)

  • 10:24

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3430, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3530, $1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3615

    GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.6000, $1.6035, $1.6100, $1.6200

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.40, Y99.50, Y100.20

    AUD/USD $0.9350, $0.9600, $0.9610

    USD/CAD Cad1.0295

    GBP/JPY Y155.50, Y158.85

    NZD/USD $0.8360

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: PMI Construction, September 58.9 (forecast 60.1)

  • 07:48

    United Kingdom: Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y, September

  • 07:02

    Asian session: The euro retreated from an eight-month high

    01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m August -4.7% +3.4%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August +10.8% -0.7% -4.7%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August +28.3% +12.3% +7.7%

    01:30 Australia Trade Balance August -0.77 -0.45 -815


    The euro retreated from an eight-month high versus the dollar before the European Central Bank meets today for the first time since President Mario Draghi said he’s ready to inject cash into the banking system. ECB policy makers meeting in Paris will keep the benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent, according to all 52 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Draghi will hold a news conference after the decision.

    The ECB president will hold off from pumping more cash into the region’s financial system as long as the threat of action keeps market interest rates under control, according to economists from Berenberg Bank to Nomura International Plc.

    The greenback halted losses against most major peers before a private report forecast to show companies in the U.S. added jobs at a faster pace. U.S. lawmakers still need to agree on raising the debt limit to avoid a default after Oct. 17, following the government’s first partial shutdown in 17 years. In the U.S., companies added 180,000 to their payrolls in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before today’s report from the ADP Research Institute. Firms hired 176,000 workers in August, according to ADP.

    Demand for the euro was limited as the survival of Italian Prime Minister Letta’s government will be tested in a confidence vote today, after former premier Silvio Berlusconi’s decision last week to withdraw support. Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party has splintered, with Angelino Alfano, who stepped down as deputy premier at Berlusconi’s request, saying yesterday his party will back the government.

    New Zealand’s dollar weakened for a second day after a central bank official said the nation’s neutral interest rate has fallen. The neutral 90-day rate is about 4.5 percent and rates will approach that level in early 2016, John McDermott, the assistant governor and head of economics, said according to the bank’s website. It was 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in previous cycles, he said.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3505-25

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair fell to $ 1.6160

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.60


    There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, although the ECB's latest policy meeting is likely to dominate proceedings ahead of the US open. The European calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the release of Spanish unemployment data. That will be followed at 0800GMT by the release of the German August car registrations. Ahead of the ECB policy decision, the Irish Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin will be released at 1000GMT. The decision from the ECB's September policy meeting will be released at 1145GMT. Markets are not expecting any change in policy, although they will be closely watching President Draghi's press conference at 1230GMT.

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Oct 1'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3524 +0,02%

    GBP/USD $1,6191 +0,04%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9058 +0,11%

    USD/JPY Y98,02 -0,21%

    EUR/JPY Y132,57 -0,20%

    GBP/JPY Y158,70 -0,18%

    AUD/USD $0,9395 +0,77%

    NZD/USD $0,8271 -0,34%

    USD/CAD C$1,0333 +0,17%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, Oct 2’2013:

    01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m August -4.7%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August +10.8% -0.7%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August +28.3% +12.3%

    01:30 Australia Trade Balance August -0.77 -0.45

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.4% +0.6%

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +5.4%

    08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction September 59.1 60.1

    09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM August +0.3% +0.1%

    09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) August +0.2% -0.5%

    11:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks

    11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

    12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report September 176 177

    12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

    14:00 United Kingdom BOE Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

    14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories September +2.6

    16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

    19:20 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

    19:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

    23:30 Australia AIG Services Index September 39.0



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