Notícias do Mercado

4 outubro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus : dollar strengthened

    The U.S. dollar rose against most currencies after the suspension of work due to federal government agencies did not come out vital statistics on the U.S. labor market , which, according to analysts' outlook dims folding stimulus from the Fed .

    Also provides support for the dollar expectation of the speedy completion of the termination of the U.S. government , as there are signs of approaching an agreement between Republicans , Democrats and the presidential administration in the United States .

    Major Republicans in Congress , frustrated by the inability to achieve Sledkov to reopen the government, began to change with the position of the termination of funding of the law on health care in 2010 (" Obamakera "), which was central to the requirements of a broader agreement on the budget.

    The new emphasis appeared on As the Congress began the confrontation on the need to raise the U.S. debt limit , a need that until the end of the month according to the treasury , since it is necessary to continue to meet our obligations . Given that federal agencies generally do not work the fourth day , some lawmakers from the Republican Party to consider ways that will break the political deadlock with regard to the financing of the government - it could be a broader financing package that would include raising the national debt limit .

    On Thursday, House Speaker John Boehner made ​​it clear that he could follow this course. At a meeting with the allies , he said he did not want to make a deal to fund federal agencies and the government to resume work only in the face of immediate negotiations to raise the debt limit . He expressed optimism that can unite two goals and achieve both of these goals and to develop a more general talks with the White House and Democrats in the Senate.

    The euro also had a weak data for the euro area . According to the report , on an annual basis the August producer price index fell 0.8 %, which was followed after zero growth in the previous month . It should be noted that according to many experts, the value of this indicator was down by only 0.5 %.

    The pound has fallen against the dollar, after touching a nine-month high this week, amid speculation that the recovery of the UK economy is not strong enough to ensure a speedy increase in interest rates. Note that today, analysts Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that the last increase was restrained. In addition to the trading dynamics influenced by the fact that next week will be a meeting of the Bank of England policy makers . According to the forecasts they will leave interest rates at record lows least until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Recall that the unemployment rate was at around 7.7 % in the second quarter. "We will not think about raising interest rates or tightening of monetary policy , we do not see the conditions in the economy when the economy is really growing , " - said the head of the central bank Governor Mark Carney .

    The yen traded with little change against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. After the announcement of the decision on monetary policy today, Governor of the Bank of Japan Kuroda explained that the policy was left unchanged, since the Central Bank decided that it is sufficient to meet current needs of the bank. If the global economic problems will threaten the recovery in Japan, the policy will be adjusted. " Now we can see that the Japanese economy is making progress in achieving the inflation target of the Central Bank 2% , even taking into account the different risk factors ," said Kuroda . He noted that , according to the Tankan report , business confidence is growing, and added that the recent decision to raise the sales tax was an important step towards restoring confidence in the financial sector in Japan . He commented on the political instability in the United States , warning that a prolonged period of uncertainty may adversely affect the financial markets , which in turn can cause a change in the policy of the Bank of Japan. However, he declined to comment on how the Central Bank will react in the event of a U.S. default .

  • 16:00

    Irish factory production falls for second month

    Ireland's manufacturing production decreased for the second successive month in August, and at a faster rate than in the previous month, data released by the Central Statistics Office showed Friday.

    Production in the Irish manufacturing sector dropped 6.7 percent on an annual basis in August, faster than the 6 percent fall seen in July. In June, output had increased by 8.3 percent.

    Seasonally adjusted production decreased 1 percent compared to July, when it contracted by 6.7 percent. In the June quarter, manufacturing production grew 2.5 percent than in the preceding three-month period, data showed.

    At the same time, the turnover in the manufacturing sector decreased 2.8 percent in August from a year earlier. Month-on-month, factory sales grew a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent, data showed.

  • 15:00

    Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, September 51.9 (forecast 52.6)

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3455, $1.3495, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3585, $1.3600

    GBP/USD $1.6050

    USD/JPY  Y96.00, Y97.25, Y97.85, Y98.00, Y98.10, Y98.25, Y99.00, Y99.05, Y99.15, Y99.20, Y99.80, Y100.00

    AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9270, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9375, $0.9400

    EUR/GBP stg0.8375, stg0.8450

    USD/CHF Chf0.8900, Chf0.8925, Chf0.9000, Chf0.9100

    USD/CAD Cad1.0390

    AUD/JPY  Y0.9100

  • 13:14

    European session: the pound against the dollar has decreased significantly

    Data

    02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

    02:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

    02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) August -0.1% +0.1% -0.1%

    06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) September +0.5% 0.0% -0.5%

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

    09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM August +0.2% +0.1% 0.0%

    09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) August +0.0% -0.5% -0.8%


    The dollar rose significantly against the euro, which was partly due to the release of weak data for the euro area .

    According to the report , on an annual basis the August producer price index fell 0.8 %, which was followed after zero growth in the previous month . It should be noted that according to many experts, the value of this indicator was down by only 0.5 %.

    Meanwhile, data showed that energy prices fell by 3.3% , while the cost of intermediate goods fell by 1%. This decrease was partially offset by a 0.6 per cent increase in the prices of capital goods and consumer durables. Add that the cost of non-durable consumer goods increased by 2%.

    In addition, it was reported that on a monthly basis the producer price index was unchanged in August, which was followed , after rising 0.2 % in July , which was revised down from 0.3 %. It was expected within a month the price index will rise by 0.1 %.

    Note also that due to the partial suspension of operation of the government today are expected economic releases from the U.S., and speeches by the Fed Dudley Kocherlakoty and Stein will be the center of attention.

    Analysts expect that the patience of investors may end if the government is not going to work more than a week , and the deadline for a decision on increasing the U.S. debt limit will approach . Earlier, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Liu said that the provision of borrowing must be exhausted by October 17.

    The inability to raise borrowing limit could damage not only the U.S. but also the world economy - said the director of the IMF , Christine Lagarde .

    Republican House Speaker John Boehner said he intends to avoid government default . The representative with a total Bonera , he always said that the country should not allow a default on the debt, but not in the House of Representatives votes to approve the increase in the debt limit without conditions .

    The pound has fallen against the dollar, after touching a nine-month high this week, amid speculation that the recovery of the UK economy is not strong enough to ensure a speedy increase in interest rates. Note that today, analysts Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that the last increase was restrained.

    In addition to the trading dynamics influenced by the fact that next week will be a meeting of the Bank of England policy makers . According to the forecasts they will leave interest rates at record lows least until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Recall that the unemployment rate was at around 7.7 % in the second quarter.

    "We will not think about raising interest rates or tightening of monetary policy , we do not see the conditions in the economy when the economy is really growing , " - said the head of the central bank Governor Mark Carney . The Bank of England will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5 % , and that the level of asset purchases at 375 billion pounds at a meeting on September 10.

    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3580

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6029

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair climbed traded in a small range - Y96.94-Y97.30


    13:15 GMT In an address by a member of the Federal Open Market W. Dudley , and 13:30 GMT - a member of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve Jeremy Stein . In Canada at 14:00 GMT release of the Ivey PMI index for September.


  • 13:01

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3720, $1.3700, $1.3660/80, $1.3650

    Bids $1.3600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3545, $1.3520, $1.3500


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6250, $1.6220, $1.6200, $1.6145/50, $1.6120

    Bids $1.6050, $1.6000, $1.5950


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9550, $0.9528, $0.9500, $0.9480, $0.9450

    Bids $0.9400, $0.9380, $0.9350, $0.9320


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8550, stg0.8515/18, stg0.8500, stg0.8480

    Bids stg0.8420, stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8350, stg0.8335/30


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y133.58, Y133.45/50, Y133.00, Y132.80, Y132.35/40

    Bids Y132.00, Y131.50, Y131.20, Y131.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y98.20, Y97.87, Y97.50, Y97.40

    Bids Y96.55/50, Y96.20, Y96.00, Y95.92


  • 10:24

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3455, $1.3495, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3585, $1.3600

    GBP/USD $1.6050

    USD/JPY  Y96.00, Y97.25, Y97.85, Y98.00, Y98.10, Y98.25, Y99.00, Y99.05, Y99.15, Y99.20, Y99.80, Y100.00

    AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9270, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9375, $0.9400

    EUR/GBP stg0.8375, stg0.8450

    USD/CHF Chf0.8900, Chf0.8925, Chf0.9000, Chf0.9100

    USD/CAD Cad1.0390

    AUD/JPY  Y0.9100

  • 10:02

    Eurozone: Producer Price Index (YoY) , August -0.8% (forecast -0.5%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Producer Price Index, MoM , August 0.0% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 07:20

    Asian session: The dollar slid to an eight-month low

    02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

    02:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

    02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement


    The dollar headed for a third weekly decline against the yen as the U.S. government shutdown delayed a key jobs report, clouding the outlook for when the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus.

    The greenback traded near an eight-month low versus the euro after Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the shortage of data “would tend to make me somewhat more cautious” about reducing the pace of bond purchases. U.S. lawmakers still need to agree on raising the debt limit to avoid a default after Oct. 17. The yen strengthened briefly after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding to monetary easing.



    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3631

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6150-80

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.00




    There is a quieter end to the week Friday, as the US employment report is no longer set for release due to the US government shutdown. The early European data sees the release of the German August PPI data at 0600GMT. Analysts see PPI unchanged on both month and on year. At 0700GMT, ECB Governing Council member Carlos Costa attends a meeting of Portuguese-Speaking Countries' Central Banks, in Lisbon. It is unclear if there will be a press conference of comments. At 0900GMT, the euro area August PPI will be published, with analysts looking for a 0.1% rise on month and a fall of 0.5% on year.

  • 07:02

    Germany: Producer Price Index (MoM), August -0.1% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 07:00

    Germany: Producer Price Index (YoY), September -0.5% (forecast 0.0%)

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Oct 3'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3622 +0,30%

    GBP/USD $1,6158 -0,43%

    USD/CHF Chf0,8992 -0,37%

    USD/JPY Y97,22 -0,16%

    EUR/JPY Y132,43 +0,12%

    GBP/JPY Y151,08 -4,61%

    AUD/USD $0,9392 +0,07%

    NZD/USD $0,8294 -0,23%

    USD/CAD C$1,0328 -0,05%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Friday, Oct 4’2013:

    02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

    02:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

    02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) August -0.1% +0.1%

    06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) September +0.5% 0.0%

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

    09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM August +0.3% +0.1%

    09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) August +0.2% -0.5%

    12:30 U.S. Average workweek September 34.5 34.5

    12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings September +0.2% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate September 7.3% 7.3%

    12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls September 169 179

    13:15 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

    13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks

    14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index September 51.0 52.6


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