Notícias do Mercado

7 janeiro 2014
  • 19:20

    American focus : the euro fell

    The U.S. dollar rose modestly against major currencies after the release of U.S. trade balance . Recent data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that exports continued to grow in November , while providing more evidence that high rates of growth abroad can improve performance for the U.S. economy .

    According to the report , the seasonally adjusted U.S. exports increased in November by 0.9 % compared with the previous month , reaching at this level of $ 194.860 billion , which was the highest in history. Imports, meanwhile, fell by 1.4% - to $ 229.110 billion

    Given these changes , the trade deficit narrowed in November to $ 34.250 billion , compared with a revised downward deficit the previous month at $ 39.330 billion (originally reported deficit of $ 40.6 billion). We add that the latter figure was the lowest since October 2009. Many experts predicted a decline in the trade deficit to only $ 40.2 billion from $ 40.6 billion

    The global economy showed signs of stabilizing in recent months , and provided potential momentum heading for the U.S. in the new year . Weakness in Europe, Japan and some emerging markets put pressure on U.S. exporters for most of the recovery.

    In addition, data showed that U.S. exports increased by 5.2 % compared with a year earlier , led by sales growth in China , Mexico and Canada . U.S. exports to China from January to November rose by 8.7% compared with the same period a year earlier . Exports to Canada , which is the largest trading partner for the United States increased by 2.5 % over the same period .

    Earlier, the euro rose sharply against the dollar, which was associated with the publication of data on inflation in the euro area , which surprised the experts. A preliminary report from the EU statistical agency showed that Eurozone annual inflation unexpectedly fell last month , reviving concerns about the fact that it could threaten the " fragile " recovery of the currency bloc .

    According to the report , on an annual basis , consumer prices rose by only 0.8 percent in December , compared with an increase of 0.9 per cent per annum in November and expectations at 0.9 percent. Recall that in October, inflation was 0.7 per cent , and this prompted the ECB to lower its benchmark interest rate to the lowest level , namely to 0.25 per cent , to stimulate the economy . ECB seeks to achieve the inflation rate below 2.0 percent.

    In addition, data showed that core inflation, which excludes prices for food and energy , was in December, only 0.7 per cent .

    "It will be interesting to see whether Mario Draghi will speak about the growing concerns about deflation at the upcoming meeting on Thursday ," said Boris Schlossberg , an analyst BK Asset Management. " Some analysts have hinted that the ECB may consider reducing rates by 10 bps . Clause in the fight against this process ."

    The yen traded lower against the dollar as the Bank of Japan reported on the change in the monetary base of the country. Index for December rose by almost 47 % compared with the previous year to a record 193.5 trillion yen ($ 1.85 trillion ) . Recall that the purpose of the Bank of Japan from December 2012 to double the monetary base to 270 trillion yen by the end of this year. Also decline in the yen was associated with operation of stop orders. According to traders , it happened after the Japanese stock market offset losses incurred earlier . Preceded this decline USD / JPY pair has led some investors and importers good opportunity to buy the U.S. currency cheaper.

  • 15:00

    Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, December 46.3 (forecast 55.0)

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3520, $1.3700, $1.3750

    USD/JPY Y104.00, Y104.50, Y104.70, Y105.00, Y105.50, Y106.00

    EUR/JPY Y143.00

    GBP/USD $1.6380, $1.6460

    EUR/GBP stg0.8345

    USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9010

    AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.9000, $0.9030, $0.9100

    NZD/USD $0.8195, $0.8210

    USD/CAD C$1.0600

  • 13:30

    U.S.: International Trade, bln, November -34.3 (forecast -40.2)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Trade balance, billions, November -0.9 (forecast -0.2)

  • 13:15

    European session: the euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar

    Data

    00:30 Australia Trade Balance , November billion -0.53 -0.30 -0.12

    7:00 Germany Retail sales in November , seasonally adjusted -0.8 % +0.5 % +1.5 %

    7:00 Germany Retail sales unadjusted y / y in November -0.1% Revised from -0.2 % +1.6%

    7:45 France indicator of consumer confidence in December 84 84 85

    8:00 Reserves Switzerland Swiss National Bank in foreign currency billion francs 435.7 435.0 435.2 December

    8:55 Germany Changing the number of unemployed December 10 -1 15

    8:55 Germany Unemployment seasonally adjusted 6.9 % in December 6.9 % 6.9 %

    10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index m / m in November -0.5% -0.1 % -0.1 %

    10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index y / y in November -1.4 % +1.2 % -1.2 %

    10:00 Eurozone CPI y / y (preliminary data ) December +0.9 % +0.9 % +0.7 %


    The euro exchange rate rose sharply against the dollar, which was associated with the publication of data on inflation in the euro area , which surprised the experts.

    A preliminary report from the EU statistical agency showed that Eurozone annual inflation unexpectedly fell last month , reviving concerns about the fact that it could threaten the " fragile " recovery of the currency bloc .

    According to the report , on an annual basis , consumer prices rose by only 0.8 percent in December , compared with an increase of 0.9 per cent per annum in November and expectations at 0.9 percent. Recall that in October, inflation was 0.7 per cent , and this prompted the ECB to lower its benchmark interest rate to the lowest level , namely to 0.25 per cent , to stimulate the economy . ECB seeks to achieve the inflation rate below 2.0 percent.

    In addition, data showed that core inflation, which excludes prices for food and energy , was in December, only 0.7 per cent .

    "It will be interesting to see whether Mario Draghi will speak about the growing concerns about deflation at the upcoming meeting on Thursday ," said Boris Schlossberg , an analyst BK Asset Management. " Some analysts have hinted that the ECB may consider reducing rates by 10 bps . Clause in the fight against this process ."

    The yen traded lower against the dollar as the Bank of Japan reported on the change in the monetary base of the country. Index for December rose by almost 47 % compared with the previous year to a record 193.5 trillion yen ($ 1.85 trillion ) . Recall that the purpose of the Bank of Japan from December 2012 to double the monetary base to 270 trillion yen by the end of this year. Also decline in the yen was associated with operation of stop orders. According to traders , it happened after the Japanese stock market offset losses incurred earlier . Preceded this decline USD / JPY pair has led some investors and importers good opportunity to buy the U.S. currency cheaper.

    Pound rose against the dollar , retreating from a session low , which was associated with the release of a report showed that sales of cars in the UK have returned to pre-crisis level of car sales in the UK in 2013 exceeded the 2007 figure . This auto market has become the busiest in Europe thanks to cheap credit and rising consumer confidence.

    Car sales last year rose by 10.5% to 2.26 million units . In 2014, experts also predict growth based on sustainable recovery unexpectedly UK. In 2013 , there were only sold by 6% fewer cars than in the pre-crisis 2007 ( 2.4 million ) , and only 300,000 less than a year a historic high . Three-quarters of Britons are buying cars on credit , using the low rates and stimulate the state program .


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3656

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6435 , and then retreated slightly

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y104.60, but then fell to Y104.40


    At 13:30 GMT , Canada and the United States will report on its trade balance for November. At 15:00 GMT , Canada will release the Ivey PMI index from December .


  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3750, $1.3720/25, $1.3700/10, $1.3670/80, $1.3650/55

    Bids $1.3600, $1.3595/90, $1.3575/70, $1.3555/50, $1.3525/20, $1.3500


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6500/10, $1.6470/80, $1.6440/50, $1.6420

    Bids $1.6376, $1.6350, $1.6337, $1.6300


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9050, $0.9020, $0.9000, $0.8945/50

    Bids $0.8900, $0.8885/80, $0.8855/50, $0.8825/20


    EUR/GBP

    Offers Stg0.8400/05, stg0.8370/80, stg0.8350, stg0.8330/35, stg0.8321

    Bids stg0.8280, stg0.8270, stg0.8260/50, stg0.8250, stg0.8220


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y143.50, Y143.20, Y143.00, Y142.80, Y142.53

    Bids Y141.85/80, Y141.50, Y141.30/25, Y141.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y106.00, Y105.80, Y105.45/50, Y105.30/40, Y105.00, Y104.75/80

    Bids Y104.00, Y103.80, Y103.50, Y103.20

  • 10:39

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3520, $1.3700, $1.3750

    USD/JPY Y104.00, Y104.50, Y104.70, Y105.00, Y105.50, Y106.00

    EUR/JPY Y143.00

    GBP/USD $1.6380, $1.6460

    EUR/GBP stg0.8345

    USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9010

    AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.9000, $0.9030, $0.9100

    NZD/USD $0.8195, $0.8210

    USD/CAD C$1.0600

  • 10:01

    Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, December +0.7% (forecast +0.9%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Producer Price Index, MoM , November -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Producer Price Index (YoY), November -0.2% (forecast +1.2%)

  • 08:55

    Germany: Unemployment Rate s.a. , December 6.9% (forecast 6.9%)

  • 08:55

    Germany: Unemployment Change, December 15 (forecast -1)

  • 08:03

    Switzerland: Foreign Currency Reserves, December 435.2 (forecast 435.0)

  • 07:45

    France: Consumer confidence , December 85 (forecast 84)

  • 07:16

    Asian session: The yen fell versus most major peers

    00:30 Australia Trade Balance November -0.53 -0.30 -0.12


    The yen fell versus most major peers after Bank of Japan data showed progress in monetary stimulus and currency volatility plunged the most in 1 1/2 years. Japan’s monetary base, which measures the supply of money by the central bank, soared 47 percent in December from a year earlier to a record 193.5 trillion yen ($1.85 trillion), a report today showed. The BOJ switched its policy target from interest rates to the gauge in April, planning to double it to 270 trillion yen by the end of this year from December 2012.

    Japan’s currency reversed an advance against the dollar yesterday that was the biggest in more than two months as BOJ policy contrasts with that of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to end its bond-buying program this year.

    The euro snapped a gain before data today forecast to show the region’s inflation approached the slowest level in four years and ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Jan. 9.

    Australia’s dollar declined against most of its 16 major counterparts.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around the level of $ 1.3620

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around the level of $ 1.6400

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y104.60


    There is plenty of data on the calendar for traders to digest Tuesday, with the added "excitement" of Fed speakers later in the day. The European calendar kicks off early, with the release of German November retail sales and November ILO employment data. At 0745GMT, French December consumer confidence numbers are expected to cross the wires. Confidence is seen unchanged at 84. German official December unemployment data will cross the wires at 0855GMT, with economists looking for a fall of 1,000 on month, with the rate unchanged at 6.9%. Euro area data expected at 1000GMT sees the release of the November PPI data and the December flash HICP data. November PPI is expected to come in at -0.1% on the month and down 1.3% on year. December flash HICP is seen up 0.8% on year. At 1100GMT, there is a briefing in Brussels on the EMU.

  • 07:02

    Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , November +1.5% (forecast +0.5%)

  • 07:02

    Germany: Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y, November +1.6%

  • 06:21

    Currencies. Daily history for Jan 6'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3628 +0,33%

    GBP/USD $1,6404 +0,01%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9039 -0,14%

    USD/JPY Y104,22 -0,53%

    EUR/JPY Y142,02 -0,20%

    GBP/JPY Y170,95 -0,05%

    AUD/USD $0,8965 +0,30%

    NZD/USD $0,8290 +0,23%

    USD/CAD C$1,0654 +0,17%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jan 7’2013:

    00:30 Australia Trade Balance November -0.53 -0.30

    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted November -0.8% +0.5%

    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y November -0.2%

    07:45 France Consumer confidence December 84 84

    08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index December +1.1% +0.6%

    08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y December +7.7%

    08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves December 435.7 435.0

    08:55 Germany Unemployment Change December 10 -1

    08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. December 6.9% 6.9%

    10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM November -0.5% -0.1%

    10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) November -1.4% +1.2%

    10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) December +0.9% +0.9%

    13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions November 0.1 -0.2

    13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln November -40.6 -40.2

    15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index December 53.7 55.0

    21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories January -5.7

    22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index December 55.2

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