Notícias do Mercado

9 agosto 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus: the euro fell

    Euro fell against the dollar, retreating from a seven-week high. Note that the dynamics of the partially influenced by expectations of the publication of data for economic growth in the Euro-region for the second quarter. The indicator will be published next week. The median estimate of economists, GDP growth should reach 0.2%, whereas in the previous six quarters were only negative.

    We also add that moderate pressure on the euro was data from France, which showed that industrial production in the second largest economy of the euro zone in June fell by 1.4% compared with May. Economists had expected a rise of 0.1% in June. In manufacturing, a decline of 0.4%. In May the total industrial production decreased by 0.3%. Published negative data contrast with the optimism of the Government in recent years regarding the strengthening of the economy after the recession at the beginning of this year. French President Francois Hollande said in a television interview in July, the beginning of recovery, and government ministers have repeatedly said that they expect the economy to return to growth in the 2nd quarter. However, industrial production in the 2nd quarter increased by 1.4% compared to the 1st quarter and by 0.2% compared with the 2nd quarter of 2012.

    The pound fell against the dollar, retreating from earlier highs. Note that initially helped the growth of currency positive trade balance data, but since this indicator was not rated highly, the interest of market participants began to gradually fade away, and that provoked a slight depreciation of the currency.

    Recall that the submitted report showed that by the end of June trade deficit Britain fell to a level of 8.1 billion pounds, compared with the upwardly revised figure for May in the amount of 8.7 billion pounds. We add that according to the average estimate of economists figure was to make -8.5 billion, which would be unchanged compared with the value for May, which was originally reported.

    The Office for National Statistics reported that the June decline of 0.6 billion pounds was within normal monthly changes.

    In addition, the data showed that the visible trade deficit was partially offset by a surplus in services at the level of 6.500 billion pounds. As a result, the overall trade deficit fell in June to 1.5 billion from 2.6 billion pounds in the previous month.

    It should also be noted that the volume of exports of goods rose in June by 1.3 billion pounds, while reaching a record 26.9 billion pounds, while imports increased by 0.700 billion pounds - to the level of 35 billion pounds.

    The Australian dollar rose sharply against major currencies, which, first of all, have helped the data presented by China.

    The National Bureau of Statistics reported that by the end of last month consumer price inflation in China has remained unchanged, while producer prices fell more than expected, thus fixing the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline. According to experts, the data give the central bank more room to ease monetary policy in the backdrop of sluggish growth.

    According to the report, the rise in consumer prices in the month of July was at 2.7 percent, remaining unchanged compared to June, which was fixed four-month high. It is worth noting that the last result was slightly lower than expected inflation - at around 2.8 percent. In addition, we add that consumer price inflation was much lower than the government target at around 3.5 percent.

    Meanwhile, it was reported that producer prices continued their decline, underscoring the weakness of domestic demand. The report showed producer prices fell last month by 2.3 percent year on year, which was followed, after falling 2.7 percent in June. Add that many experts forecast a drop of 2.0 percent.

  • 16:00

    U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly dip 0.2% in June

    With inventories of motor vehicles and parts showing a notable decrease, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing an unexpected drop in wholesale inventories in the month of June.

    The report showed that wholesale inventories dipped by 0.2 percent following a revised 0.6 percent decrease in May.

    The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected inventories to increase by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.5 percent decline originally reported for the previous month.

    The Commerce Department said inventories of motor vehicles and parts fell by 1.5 percent, while inventories of apparel and farm products also showed notable decreases.

    The decreases were partly offset by a 2.1 percent jump in inventories of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software.

    Meanwhile, the report also showed that wholesale sales increased by 0.4 percent in June after climbing by 1.5 percent in June.

    Sales of petroleum and petroleum products jumped by 5.3 percent, while sales of electrical and electronic goods surged up by 3.7 percent.

    On the other hand, the Commerce Department said sales of grocery and related products were down 1.8 percent from the previous month.

    With inventories falling and sales rising, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers edged down to 1.17 in June from 1.18 in May. The ratio came in at 1.20 in June of 2012.

    The report also showed that wholesale sales were up by 2.9 percent compared to the same month a year ago, while wholesales sales were up by 5.6 percent year-over-year.

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Wholesale Inventories, June -0.2% (forecast +0.5%)

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3280, $1.3290, $1.3350, $1.3400

    USD/JPY Y95.25, Y95.50, Y96.00, Y96.20, Y96.35, Y96.75, Y97.80, Y97.95, Y98.00, Y98.10

    GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5550

    EUR/GBP stg0.8620, stg0.8625

    USD/CHF Chf0.9285

    AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9020, $0.9025, $0.9045, $0.9075, $0.9100, $0.9150, $0.9200

    NZD/USD $0.8100

    USD/CAD C$1.0300, C$1.0375, C$1.0380, C$1.0425, C$1.0435, C$1.0450

  • 13:30

    Canada: Employment , July -39.4 (forecast +6.2)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Unemployment rate, July 7.2% (forecast 7.1%)

  • 13:15

    Canada: Housing Starts, July 193 (forecast 193)

  • 13:13

    European session: the dollar rose slightly against the euro

    Data

    01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III

    01:30 China PPI y/y July -2.7% -2.0% -2.3%

    01:30 China CPI y/y July +2.7% +2.8% +2.7%

    05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August

    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence July 44.3 45.3 43.6

    05:30 China Retail Sales y/y July +13.3% +13.5% +13.2%

    05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment July +20.1% +20.0% +20.1%

    05:30 China Industrial Production y/y July +8.9% +9.0% +9.7%

    06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -0.4% +0.3% -1.4%

    06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y June +0.4% +1.5% -0.2%

    08:00 China New Loans July 861 635 700

    08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods June -8.5 -8.5 -8.1


    The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar, but is still held near a seven-week high. Note that the dynamics of the partially influenced by expectations of the publication of data for economic growth in the Euro-region for the second quarter. The indicator will be published next week. The median estimate of economists, GDP growth should reach 0.2%, whereas in the previous six quarters were only negative.

    We also add that not a lot of pressure Eurocurrency have data from France, which showed that industrial production in the second largest economy of the euro zone in June fell by 1.4% compared with May. Economists had expected a rise of 0.1% in June. In manufacturing, a decline of 0.4%. In May the total industrial production decreased by 0.3%. Published negative data contrast with the optimism of the Government in recent years regarding the strengthening of the economy after the recession at the beginning of this year. French President Francois Hollande said in a television interview in July, the beginning of recovery, and government ministers have repeatedly said that they expect the economy to return to growth in the 2nd quarter. However, industrial production in the 2nd quarter increased by 1.4% compared to the 1st quarter and by 0.2% compared with the 2nd quarter of 2012.

    The pound fell slightly against the dollar, retreating from earlier highs. Note that initially helped the growth of currency positive trade balance data, but since this indicator was not rated highly the interest of market participants began to gradually fade away, and that provoked a slight depreciation of the currency.

    Recall that the submitted report showed that by the end of June month trade deficit Britain fell to a level of 8.1 billion pounds, compared with the upwardly revised figure for May in the amount of 8.7 billion pounds. We add that according to the average estimate of economists figure was to make -8.5 billion, which would be unchanged compared with the value for May, which was originally reported.

    The Office for National Statistics reported that the June decline of 0.6 billion pounds was within normal monthly changes.

    In addition, the data showed that the visible trade deficit was partially offset by a surplus in services at the level of 6.500 billion pounds. As a result, the overall trade deficit fell in June to 1.5 billion from 2.6 billion pounds in the previous month.

    It should also be noted that the volume of exports of goods rose in June by 1.3 billion pounds, while reaching a record 26.9 billion pounds, while imports increased by 0.700 billion pounds - to the level of 35 billion pounds.

    The Australian dollar rose sharply against major currencies, which, first of all, have helped the data presented by China.

    The National Bureau of Statistics reported that by the end of last month consumer price inflation in China has remained unchanged, while producer prices fell more than expected, thus fixing the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline. According to experts, the data give the central bank more room to ease monetary policy in the backdrop of sluggish growth.

    According to the report, the rise in consumer prices in the month of July was at 2.7 percent, remaining unchanged compared to June, which was fixed four-month high. It is worth noting that the last result was slightly lower than expected inflation - at around 2.8 percent. In addition, we add that consumer price inflation was much lower than the government target at around 3.5 percent.

    Meanwhile, it was reported that producer prices continued their decline, underscoring the weakness of domestic demand. The report showed producer prices fell last month by 2.3 percent year on year, which was followed, after falling 2.7 percent in June. Add that many experts forecast a drop of 2.0 percent.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3364

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.5516

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y96.37


    At 12:15 GMT Canada will announce the number of Housing Starts in July, and the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employed in July.


  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3480/85, $1.3450, $1.3430/35, $1.3410/20, $1.3400

    Ордера на покупку $1.3350, $1.3320, $1.3305/290, $1.3280


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5620/30, $1.5595/605, $1.5580, $1.5558

    Bids $1.5530/25, $1.5505/00, $1.5485/80, $1.5455/50, $1.5435/30


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9315/20, $0.9300, $0.9250, $0.9190/00, $0.9160

    Bids $0.9090/85, $0.9080, $0.9050, $0.9020, $0.9000


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8675, stg0.8640/45, stg0.8620/30, stg0.8613

    Bids stg0.8580/75, stg0.8540, stg0.8500, stg0.8485/80


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y130.80, Y130.50, Y130.10, Y130.00, Y129.70/75

    Bids Y128.95/90, Y128.60/50, Y128.00, Y127.90, Y127.50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y98.00, Y97.45/50, Y97.15/20, Y96.90/00

    Bids Y96.00, Y95.80, Y95.50, Y95.00


  • 10:25

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3280, $1.3290, $1.3350, $1.3400

    USD/JPY Y95.25, Y95.50, Y96.00, Y96.20, Y96.35, Y96.75, Y97.80, Y97.95, Y98.00, Y98.10

    GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5550

    EUR/GBP stg0.8620, stg0.8625

    USD/CHF Chf0.9285

    AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9020, $0.9025, $0.9045, $0.9075, $0.9100, $0.9150, $0.9200

    NZD/USD $0.8100

    USD/CAD C$1.0300, C$1.0375, C$1.0380, C$1.0425, C$1.0435, C$1.0450

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Trade in goods , June -8.1 (forecast -8.5)

  • 07:45

    France: Industrial Production, m/m, June -1.4% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 07:04

    Asian session: The Aussie headed

    01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III

    01:30 China PPI y/y July -2.7% -2.0% -2.3%

    01:30 China CPI y/y July +2.7% +2.8% +2.7%

    05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August

    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence July 44.3 45.3 43.6


    The Aussie headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than a year after data today showed China’s inflation stayed subdued in July and figures yesterday showed the nation’s imports and exports rebounded more than estimated. A government report yesterday showed Chinese shipments overseas climbed 5.1 percent in July from a year earlier after sliding 3.1 percent in June; imports rose 10.9 percent following a 0.7 percent decline.

    The euro was near a seven-week high versus the greenback before an Aug. 14 report analysts said will show the currency region’s economy returned to growth in the second quarter. Euro-area gross domestic product expanded 0.2 percent in the second quarter, after contracting for the previous six quarters, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before the report is released next week.

    Sterling was within 0.4 percent of the strongest in a month versus the euro as Carney said on BBC Radio 4’s “Today” program that “without question” inflation at 2 percent is the target. The pound jumped 0.9 percent against the dollar yesterday as the central bank’s Inflation Report and review of forward guidance fueled speculation the outlook for growth and inflation will prevent it from keeping borrowing costs at a record low. U.K. government bonds were little changed.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3375-85

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5525-45

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y96.30


    Friday sees a quiet end to the week, with only limited data on both sides of the Atlantic. There remains a dearth of ECB speakers, as Euro area officials remain on their vacations. The European calendar kicks off at 0645GMT, with the release of the French June industrial output numbers. Analysts are looking for an increase of 0.3% on the month and an increase of 1.5% on year. At 0800GMT, the Italian July final HICP numbers will cross the wires. The annualised YoY numbers is seen coming in at 1.2%.on year.

    There is a raft of UK data expected at 0830GMT, including the release of June Trade Data, June Construction Output and the July BOE Quoted Rates. While most other UK indicators have been showing sharp improvements, trade balances are the black sheep in the official data family. Net exports have made a negligible contribution to the UK's economic recovery, despite sterling's near 20% plunge when the financial crisis kicked-in. "The performance of net exports has, however, been distinctly underwhelming, adding just 1.5 percentage points to total growth since the start of the recession," Bank Of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said in a speech back in May. The UK's rebound has not seen the hoped for rebalancing of the economy toward exports.


  • 06:32

    China: Retail Sales y/y, July +13,2% (forecast +13.5%)

  • 06:31

    China: Industrial Production y/y, July +9.7% (forecast +9.0%)

  • 06:31

    China: Fixed Asset Investment, July +20.1% (forecast +20.0%)

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Aug 8'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3381 +0,33%

    GBP/USD $1,5535 +0,30%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9200 -0,14%

    USD/JPY Y96,59 +0,23%

    EUR/JPY Y129,26 +0,58%

    GBP/JPY Y150,06 +0,54%

    AUD/USD $0,9100 +1,19%

    NZD/USD $0,7999 +0,53%

    USD/CAD C$1,0324 -0,95%

  • 06:02

    Schedule for today, Friday Aug 9’2013:

    01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter III

    01:30 China PPI y/y July -2.7% -2.0% -2.3%

    01:30 China CPI y/y July +2.7% +2.8% +2.7%

    05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report August

    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence July 44.3 45.3

    05:30 China Retail Sales y/y July +13.3% +13.5%

    05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment July +20.1% +20.0%

    05:30 China Industrial Production y/y July +8.9% +9.0%

    06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m June -0.4% +0.3%

    06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y June +0.4% +1.5%

    08:00 China New Loans July 861 635

    08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods June -8.5 -8.5

    12:15 Canada Housing Starts July 200 193

    12:30 Canada Unemployment rate July 7.1% 7.1%

    12:30 Canada Employment July -0.4 +6.2

    14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories June -0.5% +0.5%


  • 06:00

    Japan: Consumer Confidence, July 43.6 (forecast 45.3)

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