The euro is on a six-week high against the dollar due to the reduced likelihood of tighter monetary policy. Even if Fed officials decide to start reducing asset repurchase at a meeting in December , it will probably be a small change , in order to avoid the sale of the bond market , which could increase the long-term interest rates and to strike at the U.S. housing market .
At the same time , rising expectations create a " banking union " in the euro area in 2014 , with the possibility to close the banks are going bankrupt , support the euro. The decision to create a " banking union " can be taken before the end of the year.
At a meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels will likely be made steps towards establishing a " banking union ." It is considered as a key factor in strengthening the eurozone ahead of a possible future debt or financial crisis.
Factors are reducing the dollar falls in expectations for the reduction of "quantitative easing" this month and reduced Treasury yields , which makes the dollar less attractive asset .
The euro exchange rate fell slightly earlier against the dollar , on what influenced weak report on industrial production in France. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics Insee showed that industrial production in France unexpectedly fell in October , registering with the second monthly decline in a row, which is another sign of a weak start to the last quarter of 2013 in the euro area .
According to the report , industrial production in the second largest economy in the eurozone fell in October by 0.3 % on a monthly basis , which followed after a similar drop in September. Analysts had expected growth in October by 0.2%. Reduction in October confirms steady downtrend issue in the industrial sector . Falling for the three months to October was 0.6 % compared with the previous three-month period .
The yen rose against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the publication of data on Japan. Despite today's pullback , the couple grows 7th consecutive week against the backdrop of risk appetite , which activates sell yen . As for the reports , orders for machinery and equipment in Japan increased by 15.4 % y / y in November , nearly doubling the October value of 8.4%.
Meanwhile, it became known that the level of consumer confidence in Japan improved in November , but less than economists had forecast .
The unadjusted consumer confidence index , which excludes households with one person was in the last month of 41.9 points, compared with 41.2 in October. Economists expected the index to rise to the level of 44 points .
Sub- index of overall confidence rose to 39.1 in November from 37.7 a month earlier. At the same time , the sub- index , which assesses the expectations regarding the growth of household income rose to 39.1 from 38.1 . We also add that consumers' willingness to buy durable goods was less positive in November - the corresponding indicator fell to 42.4 from 42.9 in October. Employment sub-index rose to 47.1 from 46.1 .
Pound traded mixed against the dollar , which is primarily due to the release of data on Britain. The Office for National Statistics reported that industrial production in the UK rose in October , while the figures for international trade continued to disappoint , highlighting the challenges facing policy-makers who are eager to see the rebalancing of the UK economy on the export of consumer spending.
The report showed that production in the manufacturing sector rose by 0.4 % between September and October , which helped increase the total volume of industrial production by 0.4%. I also add that the production in the manufacturing sector turned in October by 2.7 % higher than the same period a year earlier , which allowed to fix the largest annual growth rate since May 2011.
Led growth activity was the production of cars, airplanes and other vehicles , which in October reached its highest level since the beginning of research in 1968 , said the Office for National Statistics .
But the rise in industrial production in October was not reflected in the UK trade figures . Although the UK deficit in trade in goods with the rest of the world fell in October to 9.7 billion pounds, he was bigger than analysts had expected - at 9.2 billion pounds .
In addition , we add that the deficit in trade in goods for September was revised up to 10.1 billion pounds from 9.8 billion pounds . We also learned that the UK deficit in trade in goods with the European Union set a new record in October - at 6.5 billion pounds .
USD/JPY Y101.75, Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.70, Y103.00, Y103.10, Y103.50
EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3655, $1.3700, $1.3720, $1.3750
GBP/USD $1.6250, $1.6300, $1.6400
USD/CHF Chf0.9000
AUD/USD $0.9125
EUR/AUD A$1.5000
NZD/USD $0.8350
USD/CAD C$1.0580, C$1.0600
Data
00:01 UK House Price Balance of RICS in November 57 % 59 % 58%
00:30 Australia index business sentiment from the National Australia Bank Ноябрь May 5
00:30 AU Gross mortgage lending in October +4.4% +1.3% +1.0 %
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence 41.2 44.2 42.5 November
5:30 China Retail Sales y / y in November +13.3 % +13.2 % +13.7 %
5:30 China Investment in fixed assets in November +20.1 % +20.1 % +19.9 %
5:30 China Industrial Production y / y in November +10.3 % +10.2 % +10.0 %
6:00 Japan Change in orders for equipment (preliminary data) , y / y in November +8.4 % 15.4 %
7:45 France Industrial Production m / m in October -0.5% +0.2% -0.3%
7:45 France Industrial Production y / y in October -0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
09:30 UK Industrial Production m / m +0.9 % in October +0.4% +0.4%
09:30 UK Industrial Production y / y in October +2.2% +3.2 % +3.2 %
09:30 UK Manufacturing output , m / m +1.2 % in October +0.4% +0.4%
09:30 UK Manufacturing output y / y in October +0.8% +2.9 % +2.7 %
09:30 UK Trade balance -9.8 -9.2 -9.7 October
The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar retreated from a session high of what influenced weak report on industrial production in France. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics Insee, published earlier today showed that industrial production in France unexpectedly fell in October , registering with the second monthly decline in a row, which is another sign of a weak start to the last quarter of 2013 in the euro area .
According to the report , industrial production in the second largest economy in the eurozone fell in October by 0.3 % on a monthly basis , which followed after a similar drop in September. Analysts had expected growth in October by 0.2%. Reduction in October confirms steady downtrend issue in the industrial sector . Falling for the three months to October was 0.6 % compared with the previous three-month period .
In addition, data showed that production in the manufacturing sector of the industry - a key component of the overall figures for the manufacturing sector rose by 0.4 % in October , due to increased production of vehicles and electronic equipment.
The yen rose against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the publication of data on Japan. Despite today's pullback , the couple grows 7th consecutive week against the backdrop of risk appetite , which activates sell yen . As for the reports , orders for machinery and equipment in Japan rose by 15.4 % y / y in November , nearly doubling the October value of 8.4 %.
Meanwhile, it became known that the level of consumer confidence in Japan improved in November , but less than economists had forecast .
The unadjusted consumer confidence index , which excludes households with one person was in the last month of 41.9 points, compared with 41.2 in October. Economists expected the index to rise to the level of 44 points .
Sub- index of overall confidence rose to 39.1 in November from 37.7 a month earlier. At the same time , the sub- index , which assesses the expectations regarding the growth of household income rose to 39.1 from 38.1 . We also add that consumers' willingness to buy durable goods was less positive in November - the corresponding indicator fell to 42.4 from 42.9 in October. Employment sub-index rose to 47.1 from 46.1 .
Pound traded mixed against the dollar , which is primarily due to the release of data on Britain. The Office for National Statistics reported that industrial production in the UK rose in October , while the figures for international trade continued to disappoint , highlighting the challenges facing policy-makers who are eager to see the rebalancing of the UK economy on the export of consumer spending.
The report showed that production in the manufacturing sector rose by 0.4 % between September and October , which helped increase the total volume of industrial production by 0.4%. I also add that the production in the manufacturing sector turned in October by 2.7 % higher than the same period a year earlier , which allowed to fix the largest annual growth rate since May 2011.
Led growth activity was the production of cars, airplanes and other vehicles , which in October reached its highest level since the beginning of research in 1968 , said the Office for National Statistics .
But the rise in industrial production in October was not reflected in the UK trade figures . Although the UK deficit in trade in goods with the rest of the world fell in October to 9.7 billion pounds, he was bigger than analysts had expected - at 9.2 billion pounds .
In addition , we add that the deficit in trade in goods for September was revised up to 10.1 billion pounds from 9.8 billion pounds . We also learned that the UK deficit in trade in goods with the European Union set a new record in October - at 6.5 billion pounds .
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3767 , and then retreated to $ 1.3744
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6415 -$ 1.6465
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair dropped to Y102.70
At 15:00 GMT Britain to publish data on the change in GDP from NIESR November . At 15:00 GMT the United States will announce the level of vacancies and labor turnover in October. At 23:30 GMT Australia will present consumer confidence index from Westpac in December. At 23:50 GMT , Japan will release data on changes in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment in October.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3830/35, $1.3810/20, $1.3800, $1.3780/85, $1.3770
Bids $1.3725/20, $1.3685/80, $1.3670, $1.3650
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6550, $1.6520/30, $1.6500, $1.6470-80
Bids $1.6410/00, $1.6385/80, $1.6355/50, $1.6300/290
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9220, $0.9200, $0.9180, $0.9165/70, $0.9130
Bids $0.9075/70, $0.9050, $0.9035/30, $0.9000, $0.8980
EUR/JPY
Offers Y143.00, Y142.80, Y142.50, Y142.20/30
Bids Y141.55/50, Y141.25/20, Y141.00, Y140.50, Y140.25/20
USD/JPY
Offers Y104.00, Y103.70/80, Y103.60, Y103.50, Y103.40
Bids Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.55/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8440, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8395/400, stg0.8380/85
Bids stg0.8350/45, stg0.8330/20, stg0.8300/290, stg0.8260/50
USD/JPY Y101.75, Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.70, Y103.00, Y103.10, Y103.50
EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3655, $1.3700, $1.3720, $1.3750
GBP/USD $1.6250, $1.6300, $1.6400
USD/CHF Chf0.9000
AUD/USD $0.9125
EUR/AUD A$1.5000
NZD/USD $0.8350
USD/CAD C$1.0580, C$1.0600
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance November 57% 59% 58%
00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 5 5
00:30 Australia Home Loans October +4.4% +1.3% +1.0%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence November 41.2 44.2 42.5
05:30 China Retail Sales y/y November +13.3% +13.2% +13.7%
05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment November +20.1% +20.1% +19.9%
05:30 China Industrial Production y/y November +10.3% +10.2% +10.0%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y November +8.4% 15.4%
The euro touched the highest in almost six weeks against the dollar before data today forecast to show a rebound in French industrial production. French industrial production probably rose 0.1 percent in October from the previous month, when it shrank 0.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The shared currency reached its strongest in five years versus the yen ahead of a speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi today.
The dollar rose to a six-month high against Japan’s currency after Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the U.S. central bank should begin dialing back its asset purchases as soon as possible. Dallas Fed President Fisher said yesterday in a speech in Chicago that the central bank has done “more than enough” bond buying. Following an earlier speech in the city the same day, he told reporters that policy makers “should get started as soon as possible” on tapering their $85 billion of bond purchases each month.
The pound touched a two-year high versus the greenback before the release of a U.K. factory output report. In the U.K., industrial production probably increased 0.4 percent in October from the month before, when it gained 0.9 percent, according to a Bloomberg economist poll. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that Britain’s recovery will need to be sustained for a while before it is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3765
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6465
USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y102.15-45
The markets continue to trade in fairly narrow ranges in Europe as year end approaches. However, the calendar has a fairly full status. The European calendar gets underway from 0745GMT, with the release of the French October industrial output data. At 0900GMT, Italian October industrial production data and third quarter GDP numbers will cross the wires. At 1200GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at a conference in memory of Curzio Giannini, in Rome. ECB Governing Council member Inacio Visco will also speak at some point in the day.\There is a slew of UK data expected at 0930GMT, including October industrial production, October trade data and November BOE quoted rates. Most analysts expect industrial production expanded again on the month in October, albeit at a slower rate than seen in September after a weak reading in August. The manufacturing sector is still around 9% smaller than it was before the financial crisis hit, whereas the larger services sector has now made up the ground it lost during the recession. Other private sector surveys have shown manufacturing expanded strongly into Q4 after National Statistics data showed manufacturing output rose 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same rate of growth as seen in Q2. The PMI readings for the sector have been strong. Trade data for October will hopefully show some improvement after a poor performance in the third quarter, when overall trade was a significant drag on GDP growth. Even so, exports may well struggle to improve given the weak demand from the struggling Eurozone, Britain's main export partner.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3736 +0,25%
GBP/USD $1,6428 +0,53%
USD/CHF Chf0,8903 -0,26%
USD/JPY Y103,27 +0,39%
EUR/JPY Y141,87 +0,66%
GBP/JPY Y169,63 +0,91%
AUD/USD $0,9110 +0,11%
NZD/USD $0,8282 0,00%
USD/CAD C$1,0625 -0,27%
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance November 57% 59%
00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 5
00:30 Australia Home Loans October +4.4% +1.3%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence November 41.2 44.2
05:30 China Retail Sales y/y November +13.3% +13.2%
05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment November +20.1% +20.1%
05:30 China Industrial Production y/y November +10.3% +10.2%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y November +8.4%
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m October -0.5% +0.2%
07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y October -0.9% +0.3%
08:00 China New Loans November 506 585
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) October +0.9% +0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) October +2.2% +3.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) October +1.2% +0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) October +0.8% +2.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods October -9.8 -9.2
10:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings
12:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate November +0.7%
15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories October +0.4% +0.3%
15:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings October 3913
21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December -12.4
22:45 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m November +1.6%
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence December +1.9%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders October -2.1% +0.9%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y October +11.4% +15.1%