Notícias do Mercado

12 abril 2013
  • 19:00

    American focus: the euro rose by playing with some of the lost positions today

    The dollar fell against the euro, retreated with maximum session, helped by U.S. data presented. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales, including service and food, fell 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted to $ 418.28 billion, on Friday. Sales rose 2.8% from a year ago. Economists had expected sales volume remains unchanged. Retail sales are a key component of consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of demand in the U.S. economy. Spending at gasoline stations fell by 2.2%, and this trend is likely to continue. Average gas price in the peak spring and summer season, is expected to decline by about 6 cents compared to last year, the Energy Information Administration reported. On a positive sales growth in restaurants, shops and furniture stores. This may be a sign that consumers spent their discretionary income on items, not only for current needs. But sales excluding gasoline fell 0.2% for the month. Sales also fell in the service of car dealers, electronics, sporting goods stores and products.

    In addition, we note that today Eurogroup issued a statement on Cyprus. The document states: The European Commission is pleased to note that the Cypriot authorities take decisive action against banks agreed to restructure and recapitalize to remedy the precarious situation in the financial sector. Euro-group has encouraged the authorities for their determination in the implementation of important measures in the tight time constraints, also supporting the efforts of citizens of Cyprus, taken over the past week. " Eurozone finance ministries expect rescue fund ESM give the green light to provide a proposal Cyprus € 10 billion on April 24. The first tranche of aid can be allocated to the middle of May.

    Following the statement of the eurozone finance ministers on Cyprus, the Eurogroup announced that the maturity of loans received by Ireland and Portugal under the financial assistance will be extended. The head of the Eurogroup Disselblyum confirmed that euro zone finance ministers agreed to give 7 years of Portugal and Ireland, so they paid the loans of up to 78 billion euros and 85 billion euros. He also confirmed that the main provisions of the proposal could be considered at the forthcoming meeting of Ecofin, which starts later. The representative of the European Commission's Olli Rehn expressed hope that Ecofin will give the green light to these measures, which, in his opinion will be an important step in the recovery process.

    The British pound fell against the dollar amid a report on manufacturing in the UK construction sector, which in February rose by 5.5% compared to the previous month. However, compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 7%. These data are not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations of activity and may be revised. The UK economy is risking a recession for the third time in five years. A recession is usually defined as a decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters. UK GDP in the 4th quarter of 2012 decreased by 0.3%.

    The yen rose against all major currencies after a technical indicator signaled that rate of the Japanese currency fell too much, too fast, after the Bank of Japan announced an unprecedented incentive measures last week. Meanwhile, the strengthening of the yen contributed to the administering of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, who said that the purpose of aggressive easing of monetary policy is weakening the yen. Perhaps his words are an attempt to address the concern that Japan wants to support its economy, triggering a devaluation of the currency. He added that the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will never be targeted for currency. Meanwhile, Kuroda added that the currency of the country, carrying out quantitative easing, may still be in demand, if the strengthening of the economy is due to other policy instruments.

    The Canadian dollar was down against the U.S. dollar, which happened for the first time this week, as the volume of retail sales in the U.S. dropped significantly, showing the biggest drop in nine months, and in light of the fact that measures to strengthen the financial system in Europe gave a failure.

    Note that the attention of the market is also confined to a meeting of the Bank of Canada, which will be held next week, according to forecasts, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged at 1%.

  • 18:20

    European stock close:

    European stocks fell the most in a week, snapping the longest streak of gains in three months, as U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped.

    The Stoxx 600 lost 0.9 percent to 292.24 at 4:30 p.m. in London, paring its weekly gain to 1.8 percent. The gauge rallied for the past four days as China’s imports increased more than estimated and U.S. jobless claims fell.

    National benchmark indexes declined in all of the 18 western European markets.

    FTSE 100 6,384.39 -31.75 -0.49% CAC 40 3,729.3 -46.36 -1.23% DAX 7,744.77 -126.86 -1.61%

    U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in March, a report showed. The 0.4 percent decrease, the biggest since June, followed a 1 percent gain in February, according to Commerce Department figures in Washington. The median forecast called for an unchanged reading in March. Separate data showed the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for April slipped to 72.3 from 78.6 in March. Economists had predicted no change for this month’s reading.

    Figures released today showed euro-area industrial production in February expanded more than economists. Output in the 17-nation economy rose 0.4 percent from January, when it dropped a 0.6 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said. That beat the 0.2 percent increase projected by economists.

    Cap Gemini, France’s biggest computer-services company, retreated 4.3 percent to 34.19 euros, the biggest decline since November. Software AG fell 2.8 percent to 27.44 euros.

    Infosys Ltd., India’s second-largest software-services exporter, said it expects revenue to increase 6 percent to 10 percent in the year ending March 2014. Analysts estimated sales growth of 12.7 percent, based on the average of 66 predictions compiled by Bloomberg.

    Croda, the world’s second-biggest maker of cosmetic ingredients, slid 4.2 percent to 2,600 pence. UBS downgraded the shares to sell from neutral, saying the company has failed to deliver consistent earnings growth.

    Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest carmaker, fell 3.5 percent to 147.55 euros, the most since Feb. 22, after saying deliveries rose 0.2 percent last month as demand in China and North America was offset by shrinking sales across Europe.

    Rentokil Initial Plc (RTO), the largest pest-control company, lost 2.8 percent to 97.55 pence. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut the shares to neutral from buy and reduced its price estimate by 14 percent to 111 pence. Goldman said it expects the company’s net debt to rise because of acquisitions and capital expenditure.


  • 15:29

    U.S. business inventories inched ahead in February

    U.S. business inventories inched ahead in February, suggesting that companies are trying to keep just enough on warehouse shelves to meet uncertain demand.

    Total inventories rose 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted $1.642 trillion, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.5% increase.

    February sales, meanwhile, jumped by 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted $1.287 trillion.

    Businesses often stockpile goods if they expect demand to rise, though too much inventory can become an unwanted expense. Fuller warehouses also contribute to gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output. The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.52 percentage points from the fourth quarter's meager rate of growth.

    The economy is expected to expand more rapidly in the first quarter of 2013, helped by inventory accumulation.

    Friday's report showed inventories for manufacturers rose 0.2% and wholesalers fell by 0.3%.

    Retail inventories climbed 0.3% in February, led by rising stockpiles of clothing and furniture.

    A separate Commerce Department report Friday said retail sales fell 0.4% in March, driven weaker spending on gasoline, autos, electronics and general merchandise.

    The inventory report showed that the amount of goods on hand relative to sales was 1.28 in February. The inventory-to-sales ratio measures how many months it would take for a firm to sell its current inventory.


  • 15:00

    U.S.: Business inventories , February +0.1% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 14:55

    U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, April 72.3 (forecast 78.8)

  • 14:46

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3120, $1.3130, $1.3160

    USD/JPY Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.50, Y99.60, Y100.00, Y100.20

    GBP/USD $1.5275, $1.5325, $1.5375

    USD/CHF Chf0.9375

    AUD/USD $1.0495, $1.0550, $1.0600
  • 14:19

    U.S. wholesale inflation fell in March

    U.S. wholesale inflation fell in March, largely reversing an early year run up, because the falling cost of gasoline more than offset rising food prices.

    The producer price index, which measures how much manufacturers and wholesalers pay for finished goods, decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% from a month earlier, the Labor Department said Friday.

    But so-called core prices, which strip out volatile energy and food components, rose 0.2% in March and food prices were up 0.8%.

    The March increase in food prices could prove to be temporary. A Labor Department analyst said the nearly 22% increase in vegetable prices was largely due to weather in the Southwest. But java drinkers should be happy--wholesale roasted coffee prices are down 10% in the past year, the largest annual drop of any food category.

    Economists had expected overall producer prices to fall 0.4% and core prices to move up 0.2%.

    The overall index was held in check by declining energy prices. The wholesale price for gasoline dropped 6.8% during the month. The drop nearly entirely undid the prior month's gain and that appears to have already translated to consumers.

    The average price for a gallon of gasoline fell during March and continued to slide early this month, according to Energy Information Administration data.

    The annual rate of inflation at the producer level grew just 1.1% from the prior March, well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

    Future price increases also do not appear to be in the pipeline.

    Friday's report showed prices for intermediate goods--which are semifinished goods like lumber or flour that require further processing--fell by 0.9% in March. Prices of raw materials, known as crude goods, decreased 2.5%. Both declines were a result of lower energy prices.


  • 13:59

    U.S. retail sales dropped in March

    U.S. retail sales dropped in March as spending at gasoline stations tumbled and consumer purchases were mixed elsewhere.

    Retail and food service sales contracted by 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $418.28 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The figure was up 2.8% from a year ago.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a 0.1% decrease. Retail sales are a key component of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of demand in the U.S. economy.

    Spending at gasoline stations plunged by 2.2%, and drivers could see additional relief in the coming months. The average price of gas for the peak spring-summer driving season is expected to fall by about 6 cents from last year, the Energy Information Administration said.

    In a positive sign, sales rose at restaurants, online retailers and furniture stores. That may be an indication consumers spent their discretionary income on items beyond just the necessities.

    But sales excluding gasoline fell 0.2% for the month. Sales were also down at auto dealers, electronics, sporting goods and department stores.

    Retail sales excluding gasoline, automobiles and building materials--a figure watched closely by economists who use it as a truer gauge of consumer behavior--was down 0.12% in March, the Commerce Department said.

    Earlier this week, retailers posted tepid sales for the second straight month, after cold temperatures in March likely dragged down clothing sales and the weak job market held back confidence.

    General merchandise stores posted a 1.2% decline in the Commerce report and department store sales were down 1.1%.

    Friday's report showed that excluding autos, retail sales were down 0.4% in March after being up 1.0% the previous month.

    March's fall in overall retail sales came after a revised 1.0% gain in February.

  • 13:31

    U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, m/m, March +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:31

    U.S.: PPI, y/y, March +1.1% (forecast +1.3%)

  • 13:31

    U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, March +1.7% (forecast +1.7%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Retail sales, March -0.4% (forecast 0.0%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Retail sales excluding auto, March -0.4% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI, m/m, March -0.6% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 13:25

    European session: the euro fell versus the dollar, paring a second weekly advance

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) February -0.6% +0.3% +0.4%

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) February -2.4% -2.5% -3.1%

    09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings April

    10:00 Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment


    The euro fell versus the dollar, paring a second weekly advance, as European finance ministers meet in Dublin to review the state of Cyprus’s rescue package and the easing of bailout-loan terms for Ireland and Portugal. European finance ministers will try to reach an agreement on extending rescue-loan maturities for Ireland and Portugal at their meeting in Dublin, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said. Irish and Portuguese rescue programs face uncertainty from events like the depositor losses imposed in Cyprus and would benefit from a strong signal of European Union support, Eurogroup Working Group President Thomas Wieser said.

    The 17-nation currency slid against most of its 16 major peers as Cyprus was forced to deny it required additional European aid and Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper reported a discussion on direct bank recapitalization from Europe’s bailout fund was “going in circles.” Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades hasn’t requested additional financial assistance, government spokesman Christos Stylianides said in an-emailed statement from Nicosia, countering earlier reports.

    The dollar was set for a weekly decline versus most of its major counterparts before a report economists said will show U.S. retail sales stalled in March.

    The yen rose before a Group of 20 meeting next week. G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors gather April 18-19 for the first time since mid-February, when they released a statement pledging not to “target our exchange rates for competitive purposes.” The Japanese currency has continued to weaken since that statement as Kuroda took the helm of the BOJ and pledged to do whatever it takes to exit deflation.

    The British pound fell against the dollar on a background report on manufacturing in the UK construction sector, which in February rose by 5.5% compared to the previous month. However, compared to the same period the previous year, it was reduced to 7%. These data are not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations in activity and may be revised. The UK economy is risking a recession for the third time in five years. A recession is usually defined as a decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters. UK GDP in the 4th quarter of 2012 decreased by 0.3%.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3039


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5342

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y98.86

    In the U.S., at 12:30 GMT will change in the volume of retail trade, including the excluding sales of cars and fuel for March, the producer price index, including excluding prices for food and energy in March, in the 13:55 GMT - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in April, at 14:00 GMT - the change in volume Business Inventories for February, at 21:00 GMT - the report of the Treasury currency.

  • 13:09

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3195/200, $1.3180, $1.3160/65, $1.3142-51, $1.3140, $1.3080

    Bids $1.3040, $1.3020, $1.3005/990, $1.2980


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5500, $1.5470/80, $1.5450/60, $1.5420/25

    Bids $1.5340, $1.5300, $1.5280


    AUD/USD

    Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0600, $1.0580/85

    Bids $1.0505/00, $1.0480/75, $1.0460/50


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8630/40, stg0.8610/15, stg0.8600/05, stg0.8585, stg0.8560/65, stg0.8530/35

    Bids stg0.8485/80, stg0.8460/50, stg0.8410/00


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y131.00, Y130.70/80, Y130.35/40, Y129.60/70

    Bids Y129.05/00, Y128.80, Y128.50, Y128.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y100.00, Y99.75/80, Y99.35/40

    Bids Y98.60/50, Y98.40, Y98.00


  • 10:41

    Eurozone February industrial output rises more than expected

    Eurozone's industrial production increased at a faster-than-expected rate in February, recovering from the previous month's contraction, latest data showed Friday.

    Industrial production increased 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in February, reversing the revised 0.6 percent decrease seen in January, statistical office Eurostat said. Economists had forecast output to grow 0.2 percent, following the previous month's originally reported 0.4 percent decrease.

    The rebound was driven mainly by a 2.6 percent growth in energy production, and a 1.3 percent gain in durable consumer goods output. Offsetting these gains partially, production of non-durable consumer goods decreased 1.5 percent from a year earlier.

    In the European Union, industrial production advanced 0.4 percent sequentially, after falling 0.5 percent in the previous month, which was revised down from a 0.4 percent contraction.

    Year-on-year, industrial production decreased at a faster rate of 3.1 percent in February than the revised 2.4 percent fall in January. The rate of fall was forecast to accelerate to 2.5 percent from the originally reported 1.3 percent.

    The annual rate of fall in EU eased to 3 percent in February from January's revised 4 percent, data showed.

  • 10:22

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3120, $1.3130, $1.3160

    USD/JPY Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.50, Y99.60, Y100.00, Y100.20

    GBP/USD $1.5275, $1.5325, $1.5375

    USD/CHF Chf0.9375

    AUD/USD $1.0495, $1.0550, $1.0600
  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Industrial Production (YoY), February -3.1% (forecast -2.5%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Industrial production, (MoM), February +0.4% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 07:59

    Forex: Thursday’s review

    The dollar fell against most major currencies, as investors continue to be convinced that central banks around the world will support measures to stimulate the economy, which immediately led to a growing demand for higher-yielding assets. Add that little support for the U.S. currency has had a report that showed that the number of U.S. workers who filed new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the first time in four weeks, but analysts warn against too optimistic estimates due to seasonal fluctuations around the Easter holiday. Number of unemployment, the rate of layoffs measures, dropped by 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000 in the week ended April 6. This was the biggest weekly decline since November. Economists had forecast 362,000 new claims for unemployment benefits. Claims for the previous week were revised up to 388,000.

    Also it was announced that Italy held an auction for 3-year government debt, being able to draw on its results of 7.169 billion euros, exceeding the planned amount of E5.5-5.7 billion average yield of the bonds was 2.29%, compared to the previous auction results 2.48%. It was the lowest level since January.

    The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, approaching a new two-month high, as traders sold the dollar due to the ongoing rally in risky assets. The lack of negative events, investors pulled out of safe assets, currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar took the opportunity to make a profit, while global equity markets rallied. Data on unemployment fell for the first time in four weeks from 42 000 to 346 000 to a seasonally adjusted for the week ending April 6. In Canada, prices rose 0.2% in February, slightly ahead of expectations of 0.1%

    The New Zealand dollar rose to a 20-month high on Thursday on remarks made by Finance Minister Bill English that the state budget for the 2013-2014 fiscal year will involve the development of a surplus in the 2014-2015 financial year. A strong index of activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand presented by BNZ Capital-Business NZ, also contributed to the growth of the New Zealand currency. Despite the fact that in March, with the seasonally adjusted index fell to 53.4 against 56.0 in February, it remained above the 50 level that indicates an increase in activity. These New Zealand's housing market has also been positive. According to the report, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), the median price of housing in March increased by 4.7% compared to February and totaled 400,000 New Zealand dollars (344,000 U.S. dollars). Compared with the same period last year the median price rose 8.1%.


  • 07:02

    Asian session: The dollar dropped

    22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m March -0.3% -1.3%

    22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y March -0.1% -0.4%

    23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index February -1.5% +0.8% 1.1%


    The dollar dropped against most of its major peers ahead of data forecast to show U.S. retail sales stalled in March, adding to signs the Federal Reserve will need to maintain stimulus measures. The greenback may extend declines against the euro with economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecasting a Commerce Department report will show retail sales were unchanged last month after a 1.1 percent increase in February.

    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will speak at the Resilience and Rebuilding for Low-Income Communities Conference today. He will speak from prepared remarks and won’t take questions.

    The U.S. currency is set for a weekly decline against 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts as Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest bond fund manager, said the dollar would lose value over the long term.

    The yen halted a decline that brought it within 0.1 percent of 100 per dollar before a Group of 20 meeting next week, where Japan could face criticism over currency weakness.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around $ 1.3115.

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose $ 1.5410.

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell Y99.35.


    Friday's calendar gets underway at 0600GMT with the release of Germany's March whole prices followed by French Feb current account data at 0645GMT. Note also the Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings continue today in Dublin. Elsewhere Spanish March final HICP data are due at 0700GMT followed by Italy's at 0800GMT. Over in the UK, Feb construction output data are due at 0830GMT, ahead of the eurozone's Feb industrial output data at 0900GMT.
  • 06:32

    Currencies. Daily history for Apr 11'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3105 +0,30%

    GBP/USD $1,5384 +0,38%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9308 -0,19%

    USD/JPY Y99,79 -0,02%

    EUR/JPY Y130,79 +0,28%

    GBP/JPY Y153,51 +0,36%

    AUD/USD $1,0540 0,00%

    NZD/USD $0,8630 +0,48%

    USD/CAD C$1,0102 -0,39%
  • 06:04

    Schedule for today, Friday, Apr 12’2013:

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) February -0.4% +0.3%

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) February -1.3% -2.5%

    09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings April

    10:00 Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment

    12:30 U.S. Retail sales March +1.1% 0.0%

    12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto March +1.0% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m March +0.7% -0.1%

    12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y March +1.7% +1.3%

    12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m March +0.2% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y March +1.7% +1.7%

    12:45 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks April

    13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) April 78.6 78.8

    14:00 U.S. Business inventories February +1.0% +0.4%

    16:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
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