Notícias do Mercado

15 maio 2013
  • 19:22

    American focus: the dollar continues to strengthen

    U.S. Dollar on Wednesday continued to trade at a higher against many currencies after data on the manufacturing sector of New York and U.S. producer prices.

    The index of producer prices in April, adjusted for seasonal variations fell 0.7% amid falling gasoline prices. It was the strongest index falling more than three years. April data showed that inflation is not currently a problem. This means that the Federal Reserve may continue as long as quantitative easing without having to worry about a possible jump in inflation.

    Fed Manufacturing Index New York - an indicator of manufacturing activity in New York City - May moved into negative territory, despite the expectations of economists. A negative value means that the majority of respondents expect worsening conditions.

    The dollar also provided details of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), testifying to the increasing confidence among home builders in May after three months of decline. According to Vecchio, the rise of the housing sector has been one of the engines of recovery of the U.S. economy, and increase the level of confidence is a positive factor for the dollar.

    The euro fell to a six-week low against the U.S. dollar after the quarterly economic reports from France, Germany and the euro zone fell short of expectations. Since France is now in a recession, and Germany in the 1st quarter showed weak economic growth, the dollar continued to benefit from the relatively more attractive growth prospects of the U.S. economy.

    France reported a decline in GDP in the 1st quarter by 0.2%. This is the third decline in the past four quarters. Germany also announced an economic growth of 0.1% in the 1st quarter, while the expected GDP growth of 0.3%.

    While the market is waiting for the final completion of quantitative easing by the Fed, the yen fell sharply against the Bank of Japan's efforts to stimulate the Japanese economy through its own bond purchase program, which was launched in April.

    The British pound fluctuates against the dollar, while the pound was originally promoted the latest data, which were presented to the Office for National and showed that by the end of last month the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell substantially, thereby exceeded the estimates of experts, which contributed reduce the unemployment rate.

    According to the report, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in April for 7300 people to the level of 1.52 million, followed a decline of 7,000 in the previous month. Note that according to the average forecast of economists, the number of applications was reduced to only 3,100 people. In addition, it was reported that in the context of the significantly lower the unemployment rate also fell - to the level of 4.5 percent, while the forecast, it was to remain unchanged - at 4.6 percent.

    In the period from January to March, the unemployment rate in the ILO standards, amounted to 7.8 percent of the economically active population, up 0.1 percentage points lower than that from October to December. Note that it is estimated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged.

    However, strengthening the currency did not last long, and after the publication of the quarterly inflation report, the rate has declined markedly. Note that the Bank of England expects that inflation in Britain could rise above 3% in June, and that it may be above 2% in the next 2 years.

    As for GDP, it "may gradually grow over the next three years through a program of asset purchases, mitigating conditions in the credit market by lending and financing programs to further stabilize the world economy." MPC of the Bank of England expects GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1. Of 2013. In the current quarter, GDP should grow by 0.5%, while the annual growth should reach 2.2% (versus 2% previously). However, the MPC acknowledged that growth is still "weak and uneven."

    This report shows that, in the light of the forecasts for inflation and growth may require additional incentives. Prior to 2016, however, the rate increase is expected.

    After the release of the report, Bank of England held a press conference. He noted that there are many obstacles to the growth of the British economy, and most importantly - the eurozone crisis and rising unemployment. He stressed that the policy of the United States should continue to stimulate the economy, because "now do not relax."

  • 15:30
  • 15:00
  • 14:50

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2920, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3150

    USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.00, Y102.50

    EUR/JPY Y132.10

    GBP/USD $1.5250, $1.5300

    AUD/USD $0.9900, $0.9950
  • 14:15
  • 14:15
  • 14:00
  • 14:00
  • 13:31
  • 13:31
  • 13:31
  • 13:30
  • 13:30
  • 13:30
  • 13:15

    European session: the dollar has increased significantly

    Data

    01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April -0.6% -1.6%

    01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.5% +3.3%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +0.8% +0.8% +0.7%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.4% +3.3% +3.2%

    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 44.8 45.8 44.5

    05:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.2% -0.1% -0.2%

    05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%

    06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.6% +0.3% +0.1%

    06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.1% +0.2% -0.2%

    06:45 France CPI, m/m April +0.8% +0.1% -0.1%

    06:45 France CPI, y/y April +1.0% +0.9% +0.8%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m April 0.0% -0.2% +0.2%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y April -0.3% -0.3% -0.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y March +1.0% +0.8% +0.8%

    08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 7.9% 7.9% 7.8%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +0.8% +0.7% +0.4%

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April -7.0 -3.1 -7.3

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.6% -0.1% -0.2%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.9% -0.9% -1.0%

    09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 20.0 25.0 2.2

    09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter Quarter II

    09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks


    Value of the dollar rose sharply against the euro, which was primarily due to the publication of data on GDP growth in the euro zone.

    Note that the Statistical Office of Germany said that the country's economy was surprisingly weak in the beginning of the year, because of "the extremely inhospitable weather," as well as the decline in exports and a reduction in investment. As it became known that the gross domestic product in the first quarter grew by 0.1% qoq or 0.4% year on year, after a short and sharp decline in the fourth quarter. Statistical Office also revised downwards its GDP data for the fourth quarter. German GDP fell by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, down from its initial estimate of 0.6% contraction. The data were adjusted for inflation and seasonal variations into account, as well as the number of working days in each quarter. Economists note that strong private consumption is likely to save Germany from the recession.

    At the same time, other data, which were released today by the National Statistics Institute Insee, showed that the French economy contracted in the last quarter, topping with the forecasts of experts, which was associated with weak demand in the country and abroad.

    According to the report, in the first quarter of the gross domestic product of France fell by 0.2%, compared with an upwardly revised decrease from the previous quarter at 0.2%.

    Note that according to the average estimate of economists, the economy has been reduced by 0.1%, compared with a fall of 0.3% in the 4th quarter, which was originally reported.

    In addition, it was reported that on an annualized basis, GDP declined by 0.4%, which is fully in line with experts' forecasts.

    In the Statistics Bureau reported that most of the major components of GDP showed a significant weakness, but the major contribution to reducing the consumption of households have (fell 0.1%), business investment (down 0.8%) and exports (down to 0 , 5%).

    Note also that the domestic demand, with the exception of changes to business inventories, reduced GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, while the change in inventories added 0.1 points, while the foreign trade of GDP dropped by 0.2 points.

    The British pound retreated from the maximum values ​​of the session against the dollar, dropping at the same to the lowest values ​​of the session. Note that initially contributed to the growth of currency latest data, which were presented by the Office of National, and showed that by the end of last month the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell substantially, thereby exceeded the estimates of experts that contributed to the decline in the unemployment rate.

    According to the report, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in April for 7300 people to the level of 1.52 million, followed a decline of 7,000 in the previous month. Note that according to the average forecast of economists, the number of applications was reduced to only 3,100 people. In addition, it was reported that in the context of the significantly lower the unemployment rate also fell - to the level of 4.5 percent, while the forecast, it was to remain unchanged - at 4.6 percent.

    In the period from January to March, the unemployment rate in the ILO standards, amounted to 7.8 percent of the economically active population, up 0.1 percentage points lower than that from October to December. Note that it is estimated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged.

    However, strengthening the currency did not last long, and after the publication of the quarterly inflation report, the rate has declined markedly. Note that the Bank of England expects that inflation in Britain could rise above 3% in June, and that it may be above 2% in the next 2 years.

    As for GDP, it "may gradually grow over the next three years through a program of asset purchases, mitigating conditions in the credit market by lending and financing programs to further stabilize the world economy." MPC of the Bank of England expects GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1. Of 2013. In the current quarter, GDP should grow by 0.5%, while the annual growth should reach 2.2% (versus 2% previously). However, the MPC acknowledged that growth is still "weak and uneven."

    This report shows that, in the light of the forecasts for inflation and growth may require additional incentives. Prior to 2016, however, the rate increase is expected.

    After the release of the report, Bank of England held a press conference. He noted that there are many obstacles to the growth of the British economy, and most importantly - the eurozone crisis and rising unemployment. He stressed that the policy of the United States should continue to stimulate the economy, because "now is not relaxed."



    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.2841

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5271, then dropped to $ 1.5174

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.74


    At 12:30 GMT Canada will announce the change of volume of manufacturing sales in March, and will be released in the U.S. producer price index for April and the Empire Manufacturing manufacturing index for May. At 13:00 GMT Canada are data on changes in the volume of home sales in the secondary market in April and in the U.S. - a report on the net amount of long-term purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors and the total net volume of purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in March. At 13:15 GMT the United States will be released capacity utilization rate for April, and data on changes in the volume of industrial production in April. At 14:30 GMT the United States, there are data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy. At 22:30 GMT New Zealand will introduce the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Business NZ in April. End the day at 23:50 GMT Japan provisional data on the change in GDP, as well as changes in the volume of GDP (year), nominal GDP and the GDP deflator for the 1st quarter.

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3025/35, $1.3000/10, $1.2950-75

    Bids $1.2880, $1.2880/75, $1.2860/50, $1.2845


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5330/35, $1.5295/300, $1.5280

    Bids $1.5185/75, $1.5160/50, $1.5130/20, $1.5100-090


    AUD/USD

    Offers $1.0015/20, $1.0000, $0.9950, $0.9935/40, $0.9915/20

    Bids $0.9850, $0.9800, $0.9750, $0.9720/10


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8545/50, stg0.8530/35, stg0.8517

    Bids stg0.8435/25, stg0.8410/00, stg0.8395


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y103.50, Y103.05/10, Y102.90/95, Y102.80

    Bids Y102.10/00, Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.25


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y133.50, Y133.00, Y132.75/80, Y132.50, Y132.40/45

    Bids Y131.80, Y131.70/60, Y131.50, Y131.30, Y131.10/00, Y130.80

  • 10:20

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2920, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3150

    USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.00, Y102.50

    EUR/JPY Y132.10

    GBP/USD $1.5250, $1.5300

    AUD/USD $0.9900, $0.9950

  • 10:01
  • 10:00
  • 10:00
  • 09:31
  • 09:31
  • 09:31
  • 09:30
  • 09:30
  • 08:15
  • 08:15
  • 07:46
  • 07:45
  • 07:22

    Asian session: The Dollar Index touched the highest in nine months

    01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April -0.6% -1.6%

    01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.5% +3.3%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +0.8% +0.8% +0.7%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.4% +3.3% +3.2%

    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 44.8 45.8 44.5


    The dollar traded 0.2 percent from the strongest level in five weeks against the euro as improving sentiment toward the U.S. economy spurred speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus. The Commerce Department reported this week that U.S. retail sales rose 0.1 percent last month, compared with Bloomberg survey forecast of a 0.3 percent decline. The Fed Bank of New York's general economic index probably rose to 4 this month from 3.05 in April, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data today.

    The European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg will release preliminary data on first-quarter gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area today. Economists forecast it slid 0.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2012.

    The Dollar Index (DXY) touched the highest in nine months yesterday and U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a level unseen since March after Fed Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser reiterated that the central bank should begin to curtail bond purchases. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.985 percent, a level unseen since March 15. Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will speak today.

    The yen rallied as technical indicators signaled recent losses have been too rapid.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2920-40

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5215-35

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y102.00-30


    The string of eurozone growth data continues at 0600GMT, with the release of the German Q1 flash GDP data. French data reelased earlier was broadly in linbe with expectations, down 0.2% q/q, down 0.4% y/y. German data is seen 0.3% higher on the quarter, higher by 0.2% annually. Italian Q1 GDP is set for release at 0800GMT. At 0900GMT, the overall EMU Q1 flash GDP numbers are set for release. With the ECB Council ready to countenance a further cut in official rates, these data will provide valuable input into that ongoing policy discussion. Analysts are looking for -0.1% on quarter, down 0.9% on year. UK employment data at 0830GMT, followed at 0930GMT by the BOE's Quarterly Inflation Report. Attention into the afternoon will turn to US PPI and Empire State data at 1230GMT, TICS at 1300GMT ahead of IP/Cap.Ut. at 1315GMT.

  • 07:00
  • 07:00
  • 06:31
  • 06:24

    Currencies. Daily history for May 14'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,2931 -0,39%

    GBP/USD $1,5219 -0,54%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9659 +0,92%

    USD/JPY Y102,26 +0,50%

    EUR/JPY Y132,25 +0,12%

    GBP/JPY Y155,63 -0,04%

    AUD/USD $0,9896 -0,58%

    NZD/USD $0,8205 -0,59%

    USD/CAD C$1,0181 +0,77%
  • 06:02

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, May 15’2013:

    01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April -0.6%

    01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.5%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +0.8% +0.8%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.4% +3.3%

    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 44.8 45.8

    05:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% -0.1%

    05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% -0.4%

    06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.6% +0.3%

    06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.1% +0.2%

    06:45 France CPI, m/m April +0.8% +0.1%

    06:45 France CPI, y/y April +1.0% +0.9%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m April 0.0% -0.2%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y April -0.3% -0.3%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y March +1.0% +0.8%

    08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 7.9% 7.9%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +0.8% +0.7%

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April -7.0 -3.1

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 4.6% 4.6%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.6% -0.1%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.9% -0.9%

    09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 20.0 25.0

    09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter Quarter II

    09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks

    12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) March +2.6% +0.6%

    12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m April -0.6% -0.6%

    12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y April +1.1% +0.8%

    12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April +0.2% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April +1.7% +1.7%

    12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index May 3.05 4.2

    13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows March 53.6

    13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows March -17.8 43.4

    13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) April +0.4% -0.1%

    13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization April 78.5% 78.4%

    14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index May 42 43

    14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May +0.2

    22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI April 53.4

    23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I 0.0% +0.7%

    23:50 Japan GDP, y/y Quarter I +0.5%
  • 06:01
15 maio 2013
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