Notícias do Mercado

15 outubro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus: the euro weakened and consolidated

    The euro depreciated markedly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of ambiguous data from the institute ZEW, as well as optimism about budget issues .

    As shown by the results of recent studies that have been submitted to the Centre for European Economic Research ZEW, the level of German economic sentiment rose significantly in October , reaching with its highest level in more than three years.

    According to the report , the October index of sentiment in the business environment has increased to the level of 52.8 points, compared with 49.6 in September. Note that the last value of this index was the highest since April 2010 . Many economists had forecast the index to rise slightly , and reach a level of 59.4 . For comparison, we add that historically the average value of the index is 23.9 points.

    Meanwhile, it was reported that the index , which reflects the view of the current economic situation in Germany, fell in October to the level of 29.7, compared with 30.6 in September. It is predicted the figure would rise to the level of 31.3 points.

    Meanwhile, data released today also showed that the index of business sentiment in the euro area increased ">The pound had previously received a temporary boost from data on inflation in Britain, which came out more than expected , thereby reducing the likelihood that the Bank of England will expand QE program from the current level of GBP375 billion

    As shown by the latest report , which was submitted to the Office for National Statistics , at the end of last month , consumer price inflation in the UK has remained unchanged - at 2.7 percent. Note that inflation continues to remain above the target level of the central bank - at around 2 percent. Economists forecast that the annual inflation rate to fall to 2.6 per cent .

    A monthly basis, consumer prices rose in September by 0.4 percent, while showing the same growth rate , which was recorded in August.

    In addition, it was reported that CPIH - a new measure of inflation , which includes the cost of home owners rose by 2.5 percent compared to the previous year , remained unchanged from August .

    The Office for National Statistics also reported that core inflation, which excludes prices of energy , food , alcoholic drinks and tobacco rose in September to 2.2 percent from 2 percent in August. Inflation is projected to remain at the level was 2 percent.

    While this news was a supporting factor for the pound , the improvement of macroeconomic indicators in Britain in recent years suggests that additional QE measures are required. Instead, the market's attention will be focused on unemployment , as head of the Bank of England Carney made ​​it clear that the passage of the threshold of 7% will be the signal for the Central Bank to explore opportunities to increase the rate.

  • 14:46

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3475, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3600, $1.3625

    USD/JPY Y98.00, Y98.65, Y98.75(large), Y99.00(large)

    EUR/JPY Y133.25

    GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6100

    EUR/GBP stg0.8450, stg0.8500

    USD/CHF Chf0.9110, Chf0.9165

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

    AUD/USD $0.9500

    USD/CAD C$1.0350, C$1.0390, C$1.0400, C$1.0430

  • 13:30

    U.S.: NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index , October 1.52 (forecast 8.2)

  • 13:14

    European session: the dollar rose significantly against the euro after data ZEW

    Data

    00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes October

    00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +0.7% Revised From +0.8% -0.1%

    00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +0.2% -3.5%

    04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) August -0.7% -0.7% -0.9%

    04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) August -0.2% -0.2% -0.4%

    06:45 France CPI, m/m September +0.5% -0.3% -0.2%

    06:45 France CPI, y/y September +0.9% +0.9% +1.0%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September +0.5% +0.4% +0.4%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September +3.3% +3.2% +3.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y September +3.3% +3.2% +3.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September -0.2% -0.1% -1.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September +2.8% +2.2% +1.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September +0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September +1.6% +1.3% +1.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September +0.4% +0.3% +0.4%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September +2.7% +2.6% +2.7%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September +2.0% +2.0% +2.2%

    09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment October 58.6 59.4 59.1

    09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment October 49.6 49.2 52.8


    The euro exchange rate depreciated markedly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of ambiguous data from the institute ZEW, as well as optimism about budget issues .

    As shown by the results of recent studies that have been submitted to the Centre for European Economic Research ZEW, the level of German economic sentiment rose significantly in October , reaching with its highest level in more than three years.

    According to the report , the October index of sentiment in the business environment has increased to the level of 52.8 points, compared with 49.6 in September. Note that the last value of this index was the highest since April 2010 . Many economists had forecast the index to rise slightly , and reach a level of 59.4 . For comparison, we add that historically the average value of the index is 23.9 points.

    Meanwhile, it was reported that the index , which reflects the view of the current economic situation in Germany, fell in October to the level of 29.7, compared with 30.6 in September. It is predicted the figure would rise to the level of 31.3 points.

    Meanwhile, data released today also showed that the index of business sentiment in the euro area increased ">The pound dropped significantly against the dollar , as the Congress is getting closer to an agreement on a temporary increase in the debt ceiling. Increased optimism regarding the issue supported the dollar , two days before the deadline on the debt ceiling to be held on October 17.

    We also add that today pound got a temporary boost from data on inflation in Britain, which came out more than expected , thereby reducing the likelihood that the Bank of England will expand QE program from the current level of GBP375 billion

    As shown by the latest report , which was submitted to the Office for National Statistics , at the end of last month , consumer price inflation in the UK has remained unchanged - at 2.7 percent. Note that inflation continues to remain above the target level of the central bank - at around 2 percent. Economists forecast that the annual inflation rate to fall to 2.6 per cent .

    A monthly basis, consumer prices rose in September by 0.4 percent, while showing the same growth rate , which was recorded in August.

    In addition, it was reported that CPIH - a new measure of inflation , which includes the cost of home owners rose by 2.5 percent compared to the previous year , remained unchanged from August .

    The Office for National Statistics also reported that core inflation, which excludes prices of energy , food , alcoholic drinks and tobacco rose in September to 2.2 percent from 2 percent in August. Inflation is projected to remain at the level was 2 percent.

    While this news was a supporting factor for the pound , the improvement of macroeconomic indicators in Britain in recent years suggests that additional QE measures are required. Instead, the market's attention will be focused on unemployment , as head of the Bank of England Carney made ​​it clear that the passage of the threshold of 7% will be the signal for the Central Bank to explore opportunities to increase the rate.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3478

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5912

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose from Y98.36 to Y.98.70, but then again fell to Y98.45


    At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the Empire Manufacturing production index for October. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will present the consumer price index for the 3rd quarter . At 23:30 GMT Australia will release the index of leading economic indicators from the Melbourne Institute in August.

  • 13:01

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3650, $1.3600/10, $1.3598, $1.3580, $1.3571

    Bids $1.3488-86, $1.3485/80, $1.3460/50, $1.3435


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6120/25, $1.6100, $1.6070/80, $1.6040/50, $1.6020

    Bids $1.5920/00, $1.5870, $1.5850/40, $1.5820, $1.5800


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9650, $0.9620, $0.9600, $0.9580, $0.9550

    Bids $0.9500, $0.9435/30, $0.9420, $0.9400


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8550/55, stg0.8520/30, stg0.8510, stg0.8495/500

    Bids stg0.8455/50, stg0.8440, stg0.8425/15, stg0.8400, stg0.8370/65


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y134.54, Y134.50, Y133.90/00, Y133.80/83

    Bids Y133.20, Y133.10/00, Y132.50, Y132.25/20, Y132.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y99.50, Y99.20, Y99.00, Y98.80

    Bids Y98.20, Y98.05/00, Y97.85/80, Y97.50


  • 10:25

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3475, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3600, $1.3625

    USD/JPY Y98.00, Y98.65, Y98.75(large), Y99.00(large)

    EUR/JPY Y133.25

    GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6100

    EUR/GBP stg0.8450, stg0.8500

    USD/CHF Chf0.9110, Chf0.9165

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

    AUD/USD $0.9500

    USD/CAD C$1.0350, C$1.0390, C$1.0400, C$1.0430


  • 10:04

    Germany: ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment, October 52.8 (forecast 49.2)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment, October 59.1 (forecast 59.4)

  • 07:46

    France: CPI, m/m, September -0.2% (forecast -0.3%)

  • 07:03

    Asian session: The dollar slid

    00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes October

    00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)      September +0.8%   -0.1%

    00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)        September +0.2%  -3.5%

    04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) August -0.7% -0.7% -0.9%

    04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) August -0.2% -0.2% -0.4%


    The dollar slid against higher-yielding currencies as equity markets signaled optimism about U.S. Senate discussions on raising the nation’s debt limit to avert a default, curbing demand for refuge assets. Senate Democratic and Republican leaders said yesterday they made significant progress toward an accord. The emerging agreement would suspend the debt limit through Feb. 7, 2014, fund the government through Jan. 15 and require a House-Senate budget conference by Dec. 13, according to a Senate source familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss them.

    The greenback remained lower after two days of declines versus the euro as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he hoped a deal could be announced today. Volatility in currencies is at a more than eight-month low as traders await a resolution to the impasse that shuttered parts of the U.S. government.

    Australia’s dollar rose to an almost four-month high after minutes of the central bank’s meeting this month signaled no imminent reduction to record-low interest rates.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3565

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6000

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y98.40


    The US markets make a full return to the fray Tuesday. European data kicks off at 0600GMT, with the German August import prices. At 0645GMT, the French September HICP data will cross the wires. The main Euro area report comes at 0900GMT, when the German October ZEW report will be issued.Investors will be keen to discover if the money men from Europe's biggest economy share the same optimism over its economic prospects as those who run the central bank. UK data expected at 0830GMT includes the August official house price index and the September inflation numbers. The inflation numbers will give a clue of whether inflation is edging back towards the Bank of England's 2% target. So far in Q3 inflation has been a touch weaker than the BOE expected and it would take a 3.1% yearly outturn in September to get it back in line with the BOE's forecast.

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Oct 14'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3559 +0,25%

    GBP/USD $1,5981 +0,07%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9102 -0,09%

    USD/JPY Y98,66 +0,39%

    EUR/JPY Y133,78 +0,64%

    GBP/JPY Y157,63 +0,44%

    AUD/USD $0,9491 +0,31%

    NZD/USD $0,8357 +0,85%

    USD/CAD C$1,0354 -0,42%


  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, Oct 15’2013:

    00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes October

    00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +0.8%

    00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +0.2%

    04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) August -0.7% -0.7%

    04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) August -0.2% -0.2%

    06:45 France CPI, m/m September +0.5% -0.3%

    06:45 France CPI, y/y September +0.9% +0.9%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September +0.5% +0.4%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September +3.3% +3.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y September +3.3% +3.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September -0.2% -0.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September +2.8% +2.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September +0.1% -0.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September +1.6% +1.3%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September +0.4% +0.3%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September +2.7% +2.6%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September +2.0% +2.0%

    09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment October 58.6 59.4

    09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment October 49.6 49.2

    12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index October 6.29 8.2

    14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

    21:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter III +0.2% +0.8%

    21:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter III +0.7% +1.2%

    23:30 Australia Leading Index August +0.6%

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