Notícias do Mercado

21 fevereiro 2014
  • 19:20

    American focus : the euro rose

    The euro rose against the U.S. dollar on the background data on the U.S. housing market . Data from the National Association of Realtors showed that home sales in the secondary market fell in January by 5.1 % to a seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 462 thousand add that recent decline was the fifth in the last six months , lowering the annual rate to its lowest level in 18 months. Economists had forecast that sales in January to fall to the level of 4.73 million units, compared to 4.87 million in December. Compared with the same period last year, sales were also down by 5.1%. " Last deterioration was only partly due to the cold weather ," said Lawrence Yun , chief economist for the National Association of Realtors . Sales fell in all four regions of the U.S. , but the biggest drop was seen in the West - in the warmest region . Furthermore, the expert added that other factors are likely to have a slowdown in the housing market , including a shortage of properties for sale , higher prices than a year earlier , rising mortgage rates and rising insurance premiums from flooding.

    The yen fell against the dollar, which , in part, was associated with a protocol of the meeting of 21-22 January . They showed that the members of the Board of the Bank of Japan 's monetary policy predict that the country's economic recovery will continue. The Council added that the risks to the recovery remain , especially from commodity exporters, the European debt situation and the pace of recovery in the U.S.. Council members also said that inflation seems to be growing, making progress in the completion of a long period of deflation. Meanwhile , we add that the growth forecasts by the central bank for fiscal year 2013 unchanged at 2.7 percent, while the forecast for 2014 fiscal year has been revised downward to 1.4 percent from 1 , 5 percent. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow at a steady pace in 2015 - at the level of 1.5 percent. Inflation forecast of the Bank of Japan also remained unchanged. Core CPI is estimated to increase by 0.7 percent in fiscal 2013 and 3.3 percent in fiscal year 2014 . The rate of inflation will be moderate - at 2.6 percent in fiscal year 2014 .

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Existing Home Sales , January 4.62 (forecast 4.73)

  • 13:44

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y101.30, 101.80, Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.50, Y103.90, Y104.05, Y105.00

    EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3700, $1.3720/25, $1.3750, $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3875

    GBP/USD $1.6540-50, $1.6600, $1.6700

    EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8175, stg0.8190-95, stg0.8200, stg0.8245, stg0.8280, stg0.8320

    AUD/USD $0.8810, $0.8950, $0.9050, $0.9075

    AUD/JPY Y92.50, Y92.95, Y93.00

    USD/CAD C$1.1050, C$1.1100, C$1.1130/35

  • 13:32

    Canada: Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y, January +1.4% (forecast +1.3%)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m, January +0.2% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, December -1.8% (forecast -0.5%)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, December -1.4% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Consumer price index, y/y, January +1.5% (forecast +1.3%)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Consumer Price Index m / m, January +0.3% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 13:16

    European session: the euro fell against the U.S. dollar

    Data

    00:00 G20 G20 Meetings

    09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January +2.6% -0.9% -1.5%

    09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January +5.3% +5.0% +4.3%

    09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln January 9.0 Revised From 10.4 -9.3 -6.4


    The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar , due to the anticipation of the publication of data on housing sales in the U.S. secondary market . According to the median forecast of economists today the U.S. National Association of Realtors announced a reduction in the January sales on the secondary market . Expected to drop to 4.73 million annualized and seasonally adjusted . In December, sales totaled 4.87 million main reason for possible bad statisticians call very cold weather in January , which forced many construction projects get up and slow down the already existing sites . Moreover, high mortgage rates and housing prices have led to the fact that housing has become less affordable . Current downward trend began with the summer.

    The yen fell against the dollar, which , in part, was associated with a protocol of the meeting of 21-22 January . They showed that the members of the Board of the Bank of Japan 's monetary policy predict that the country's economic recovery will continue. The Council added that the risks to the recovery remain , especially from commodity exporters, the European debt situation and the pace of recovery in the U.S.. Council members also said that inflation seems to be growing, making progress in the completion of a long period of deflation. Meanwhile , we add that the growth forecasts by the central bank for fiscal year 2013 unchanged at 2.7 percent, while the forecast for 2014 fiscal year has been revised downward to 1.4 percent from 1 , 5 percent. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow at a steady pace in 2015 - at the level of 1.5 percent. Inflation forecast of the Bank of Japan also remained unchanged. Core CPI is estimated to increase by 0.7 percent in fiscal 2013 and 3.3 percent in fiscal year 2014 . The rate of inflation will be moderate - at 2.6 percent in fiscal year 2014 .

    Pound rose slightly against the dollar, while restoring previously lost ground. Steam rising for the first week after I met interest in buying near 1.6600/10 . Weak retail sales data for January is almost no impact on the pound, which survived only a short drop to 1.6610 , but quickly recovered . Recall that retail sales including automotive fuel , fell last month by 1.5 percent on a monthly basis , while fixing the first decline for the past three months . Economists had expected sales to fall by 0.9 percent , after the publication of growth of 2.5 per cent in December , which was revised down from 2.6 percent. In annual terms, retail sales , including automotive fuel rose at a slower pace in January - by 4.3 percent , after a 5.3 percent increase in December. It was expected that sales will rise to 5.0 percent . Experts point out that this report , however, should be viewed in the context of a sharp rise in sales in December and January very raw weather , which led to a reduction in consumption. Amid rising consumer confidence , employment and wages, which begins to rise , the household sector can make a positive contribution to GDP this year .


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3700


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6609 , but then rose to $ 1.6688


    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.60


    At 13:30 GMT , Canada will release the consumer price index and the core consumer price index from the Bank of Canada in January , and will report on changes in the volume of retail sales in December. At 15:00 GMT the United States declares the volume of sales in the secondary market in January .

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3785/800, $1.3770/80, $1.3750, $1.3740. $1.3728

    Bids $1.3700, $1.3686, $1.3674, $1.3660/50


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6823, $1.6795/800, $1.6770/80, $1.6720/25, $1.6700

    Bids $1.6650, $1.6610, $1.6605/00, $1.6580


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9128, $0.9100, $0.9085, $0.9045/50, $0.9020

    Bids $0.8950, $0.8937, $0.8910/00, $0.8880


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8337, stg0.8300/05, stg0.8280, stg0.8265/70, stg0.8254

    Bids stg0.8218, stg0.8205/195, stg0.8180, stg0.8150


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y142.40/50, Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00

    Bids Y140.00, Y139.86, Y139.60/50, Y139.38, Y139.10/00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y103.40, Y103.20, Y102.90/00, Y102.74/86, Y102.60/65

    Bids Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.67/62, Y101.50, Y101.20/00

  • 10:28

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y101.30, 101.80, Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.50, Y103.90, Y104.05, Y105.00

    EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3700, $1.3720/25, $1.3750, $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3875

    GBP/USD $1.6540-50, $1.6600, $1.6700

    EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8175, stg0.8190-95, stg0.8200, stg0.8245, stg0.8280, stg0.8320

    AUD/USD $0.8810, $0.8950, $0.9050, $0.9075

    AUD/JPY Y92.50, Y92.95, Y93.00

    USD/CAD C$1.1050, C$1.1100, C$1.1130/35

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, January -4.7 (forecast -9.3)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Retail Sales (MoM), January -1.5% (forecast -0.9%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Retail Sales (YoY) , January +4.3% (forecast +5.0%)

  • 06:20

    Asian session: The dollar rose


    The dollar rose versus most major counterparts this week on bets the Federal Reserve will press on with reducing stimulus, even amid weaker U.S. economic data that may have been caused by winter storms.

    The greenback headed for its biggest weekly advance this year against its Japanese peer before Fed Chair Janet Yellen joins Group of 20 officials in Sydney for talks starting tomorrow. The communique from the meeting will urge policy makers to calibrate policies to avoid volatile capital flows, especially during Fed tapering, according to an official from a member country involved in discussions on communique comments on central bank coordination.

    Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and his Dallas counterpart Richard Fisher are scheduled to make remarks today.

    The central bank’s January meeting minutes released this week signaled policy makers supported a continued decrease in bond purchases. The Fed announced in December it would start paring stimulus by cutting monthly bond buying by $10 billion per month, and policy makers decided on another reduction of the same size last month, to $65 billion. Policy makers next meet on March 18-19.

    Australia’s dollar weakened after prices for iron ore, its biggest export, dropped 1.2 percent over two days to $122.90 a metric ton yesterday, according to data compiled by The Steel Index Ltd. Total iron-ore inventory at Chinese ports monitored by Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. climbed to 100.3 million tons in the week ended Feb. 14, the highest in figures going back to March 2010.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3710-20

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6635

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.60



    Friday's calendar quietens considerably, with only limited data on both sides of the Atlantic. Additionally, the two key Fed speakers expected are both schedules to appear after the market close. The European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, with the release of the Swiss February consumer and manufacturing confidence data. At 0830GMT, the Netherlands sees the release of the January house price index. The Italian January final HICP data will cross the wires at 0900GMT. Analysts are looking for a fall of 2.1% on month, a rise of 0.6% on year.

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