Notícias do Mercado

22 maio 2013
  • 19:00

    American focus: the U.S. dollar exchange rate has risen sharply

    The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar after reaching maximum values, and updated with the session low. Note that in such a dynamic impact statement by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that the U.S. economy remains under pressure from high unemployment and cuts in government spending, and too early tightening jeopardize its growth. In fact, the "premature tightening of monetary policy may lead to a temporary rise in interest rates, but also carries a significant risk of a potential slowdown or complete recovery and further fall in inflation," Bernanke said today in remarks prepared for the Joint Committee of Congress in Washington. Monetary policy has "substantial benefits," he said. Bernanke is the head of the most aggressive economic stimulus for the centenary history of the Federal Reserve in an effort to stimulate growth and reduce bloated unemployment rate which is 7.5%, which will complete the longest since the Great Depression of the recession. While, according to some, the labor market shows modest improvement, the Fed chief noted that "high levels of unemployment and under-utilization of labor resources is extremely costly."

    The yen fell against the dollar, after it became known, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged and raised its forecast for growth in the national economy, despite the volatility in the financial markets and the risks associated with a slowing of growth in world GDP. Note that the monetary policy of the central bank aims to achieve the inflation target of 2%, with a focus on the Japanese authorities have focused monetary base. According to the published decision, the Bank of Japan will annually purchase government bonds of 60-70 trillion yen (603-704 billion dollars). These main lines have been confirmed in the course of the meeting. However, many economists have expressed the view that to achieve the inflation target within two years is not possible. While the decision on the policy was adopted unanimously, board member Takahide Kiut suggested that the central bank should promise to achieve the inflation target "in the medium and long term," and the current policy should be characterized as "intense action, the duration of the which is about two years" . This proposal was rejected by the other nine members of the board. The Bank of Japan did not mention the recent increase in yields on Japanese bonds, which alarmed the market. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economy the fifth month in a row, as it sees signs of consolidating the recovery. In a statement, the Bank of Japan noted that the economy "has stopped weakening and is showing some early signs of growth." Earlier, the Japanese government also increased the estimate of the economy, reflecting the improvement in economic conditions.

    The pound fell against the dollar after the Bank of England published the minutes of its meeting of 8-9 May, in which all members of the MPC voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%. As for the question of continuing the program of asset purchases at £ 375 billion, the second consecutive month, 6 members of the MPC voted "for", while three voted against the policy. The head of the Central Bank Governor Mervyn King, Paul Fisher and David Miles, voted "no", chose to expand the program by 25 billion pounds up to £ 400 billion as stated in the report, "In general, the economic news this month can be viewed as favorable, and it is expected that by the end of the 2nd quarter of the economy by 0.7% higher than the expectations of the Committee, published three months ago." However, the monetary authorities have stressed that by historical standards, growth prospects remain unfavorable, and prevented the possibility of accelerating inflation and maintain CPI above 2% target over the next two years. Most MPC members do not consider it necessary to increase the incentive program after the expansion of QE in February. However, Mervyn King, Paul Fisher and David Miles said the new round of expansion of the program "will lead to an earlier normalization of the policy when the situation requires."

    In addition, it was reported that retail sales in the UK fell unexpectedly in April. The volume of retail sales including automotive fuel, fell by 1.3% compared with the previous month, against the forecast unchanged. Sales excluding fuel fell by 1.4% compared with an expected 0.1% growth. With motor fuel sales rose 0.5% in April, in annual terms, while the expected 2% increase. Sales excluding fuel rose 0.2% compared with the previous year, the expected 1.8% growth.

  • 15:30
  • 15:00
  • 14:46

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.3000, $1.3025

    USD/JPY Y101.50, Y102.40, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.25

    GBP/USD $1.5150, $1.5200

    USD/CHF Chf0.9680

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2400, Chf1.2500

    AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9900

  • 14:01

    Canada retail sales weaker than expected in March

    Canadian monthly retail sales were softer than expected in March, dragged by lower gasoline prices, marking the weakest showing in three months.

    Sales were unchanged at 39.55 billion Canadian dollars ($38.52 billion), following a 0.7% gain in February, which was revised down from the originally estimated 0.8%, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

    The consensus call was for sales to edge up 0.1%, according to a report from Royal Bank of Canada. Year-on-year sales increased 1.1%.

    Excluding the auto sector, sales shrank 0.2% on a monthly basis in March following a 0.7% increase the prior month, contrary to an expected 0.1% increase.

    But sales volume, which eliminates price changes and feeds into economic output figures, expanded 0.7%, suggesting retail sales made a positive contribution to the month's gross domestic product.

  • 13:30
  • 13:30
  • 13:26

    European session: the yen fell to the weakest in three years against the euro


    08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln March 16.3 14.2 25.9

    08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes May

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) April -0.7% 0.0% -1.3%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) April -0.5% +2.0% +0.5%

    08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln April 16.7 7.6 8.0

    10:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit May

    10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance May -25 -17 -20

    10:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks


    The yen fell to the weakest in three years against the euro after Bank of Japan policy makers affirmed a plan to double the monetary base over two years and their statement showed no concern with rising bond yields. Japan's currency declined versus 13 of its 16 major peers after a government report showed the trade deficit swelled more in April than analysts forecast. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters in Tokyo that the central bank will conduct its debt purchases in a flexible manner, and that the recent volatility in government securities isn't yet affecting the economy. The central bank will expand the supply of money in the economy by 60 to 70 trillion yen a year, as pledged in April, the BOJ said. Japanese exports rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said, less than the median 5.4 percent estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The trade deficit expanded to 879.9 billion yen, the widest in three months.

    The dollar dropped for a third day against the euro before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke addresses Congress on the outlook for the U.S. economy. The dollar fell against the euro before Bernanke testifies to the Joint Economic Committee in Washington. The Fed is buying $85 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage debt to push down borrowing costs and spur growth.

    The franc fell to the weakest since May 2011 versus the euro after Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said an adjustment of the currency's cap was possible. The franc weakened to a one-year low against the euro after Swiss National Bank President Jordan said a shift of the cap on the currency and negative interest rates are among measures it may take to prevent a tightening of monetary conditions.

    The pound declined to a four-week low against the euro after a government report showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly dropped last month. The U.K. currency slid to a six-week low versus the dollar after minutes of the Bank of England's May 8-9 policy meeting showed Governor Mervyn King was defeated for a fourth month in his bid to expand stimulus. King, David Miles and Paul Fisher maintained their campaign to increase so-called quantitative easing by 25 billion pounds ($37.7 billion) from the current 375 billion pounds.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2955


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5073

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y103.15

    At 12:30 GMT Canada will publish the change in the volume of retail sales, including excluding vehicle sales for March. In the U.S., will be released at 14:00 GMT volume of sales in the secondary market for April, at 14:30 GMT - the data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy. At 18:00 GMT will be publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting.

  • 13:04

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.2970/300, $1.2950/70

    Bids $1.2905/00, $1.2880, $1.2860/40, $1.2820/00, $1.2790-70


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5260/65, $1.5230/35, $1.5200, $1.5150, $1.5125, $1.5100

    Bids $1.5075, $1.5060/50


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9880, $0.9860, $0.9845/50, $0.9825/30, $0.9790/95

    Bids $0.9735/30, $0.9720, $0.9710, $0.9700, $0.9650


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8650/60, stg0.8620, stg0.8600, stg0.8580/85

    Bids stg0.8445/40, stg0.8430/20, stg0.8400


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y134.00, Y133.80/85, Y133.50

    Bids Y132.60/50, Y132.25/20, Y132.00, Y131.70/60, Y131.55/50, Y131.30


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y104.00, Y103.60, Y103.50, Y103.40, Y103.20/30, Y102.95/00

    Bids Y102.30/25, Y102.05/00, Y101.85/80, Y101.50

  • 11:15

    UK retail sales fall unexpectedly in April

    Retail sales in the UK declined unexpectedly in April, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday.

    Retail sales volume, including auto fuel, fell 1.3 percent month-on-month in April against forecast for a 0.1 percent increase. Sales, excluding fuel, dropped 1.4 percent compared with an expected 0.1 percent growth.

    Including auto fuel, sales rose 0.5 percent in April from last year, while expectations were for a 2 percent increase. Sales, excluding fuel, were 0.2 percent higher year-on-year. However, the pace of growth was weaker than the expected 1.8 percent expansion.

  • 11:00
  • 10:21

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.3000, $1.3025

    USD/JPY Y101.50, Y102.40, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.25

    GBP/USD $1.5150, $1.5200

    USD/CHF Chf0.9680

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

    AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9900

  • 09:32
  • 09:31
  • 09:31
  • 09:00
  • 07:04

    Asian session: The dollar fell

    00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May -5.1% -7.0%

    04:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

    04:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference


    The dollar fell for a third day against the euro before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke addresses Congress amid concern he will disappoint expectations for a paring back of monetary stimulus.

    The greenback weakened yesterday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank should keep buying bonds and New York Fed President William Dudley said it had previously been overly optimistic about growth. The purchases should be maintained because markets indicate they are improving financial conditions and can be adjusted based on how the economy changes, Bullard said yesterday in prepared remarks in Frankfurt. He votes on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year. New York Fed President Dudley said he hasn't decided whether bond-buying should be increased or cut. The Fed is waiting for a self-reinforcing economy before it ends stimulus, he said. It was too optimistic about economic prospects in the 2009-2012 period, he said.

    The yen erased earlier declines against the dollar after Bank of Japan policy makers retained their monetary-base target and their statement made no reference to rising bond yields. The BOJ affirmed a plan to double the monetary base over two years at the end of its policy meeting. The central bank will expand the supply of money in the economy by 60 trillion yen ($585 billion) to 70 trillion yen a year, as pledged in April, it said today.

    Japan's exports missed estimates in April and the trade deficit swelled, data today showed.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.2940

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around $ 1.5150

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around Y102.50


    A light EZ and US data calendar with key event being Fed Bernanke Testimony at 1400GMT, overshadowing later FOMC Minutes. UK calendar full of interest, UK retail sales and PSNB due at 0830GMT, along with BOE MPC Minutes, followed by the IMF press conference on the conclusion of the mission fopr the 2013 Article VI Consultations with the UK at 1100GMT.

  • 06:22

    Currencies. Daily history for May 21'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,2905 +0,16%

    GBP/USD $1,5149 -0,71%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9702 +0,38%

    USD/JPY Y102,50 +0,23%

    EUR/JPY Y132,29 +0,42%

    GBP/JPY Y155,29 -0,46%

    AUD/USD $0,9802 -0,03%

    NZD/USD $0,8166 -0,09%

    USD/CAD C$1,0268 +0,26%

  • 06:02

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, May 22’2013:

    00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May -5.1%

    04:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

    04:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

    08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln March 16.3 14.2

    08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes May

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) April -0.7% 0.0%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) April -0.5% +2.0%

    08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln April 16.7 7.6

    10:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit May

    10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance May -25 -17

    10:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

    12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m March +0.8% +0.2%

    12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m March +0.7% +0.2%

    14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales April 4.92 4.99

    14:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

    14:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

    14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May -0.6

    18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes May

22 maio 2013
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