Notícias do Mercado

29 novembro 2013
  • 19:21

    American focus : euro stabilized

    The euro fluctuates against the dollar , while demonstrating a slight decrease . Note that the pair continues to rise the third consecutive week , recovering from the levels reached after the rate cut by the ECB. Risk appetite and skepticism about " transparency policy " ECB support the single currency. At the same time , today's favorable reports on inflation and unemployment had no noticeable effect on the dynamics of the euro .

    In the statistical agency of the European Union reported that the number of people out of work in 17 countries in the euro zone declined unexpectedly in October , departing from its highest level since April 2011 . According to the report , the unemployment rate in the euro area fell last month to 12.1 %, compared with 12.2% in September, which was a record .

    Furthermore, the data showed that the number of people without jobs fell by 61,000 in October, largely was due to a decrease on 41 000 in France - the second largest economy in the monetary area . Nevertheless , without a job are still 19,298 million, 615 thousand more than in the same month last year. We also recall that the last time the unemployment rate fell in 2011 . Decline in unemployment was a surprise to many economists , as they expected that this figure will remain unchanged. But , despite the recession , the unemployment rate remains very high by international standards.

    Meanwhile , another report submitted showed that inflation in the eurozone rose to 0.9 percent in November . Note that these data are still preliminary revenge . Many experts expect that inflation will rise by 0.8 percent. Recall that in October of this indicator increased by 0.7 percent. However , despite this growth , inflation remains below the target level of the European Central Bank "below but close to 2 percent " for the tenth consecutive month. We also learned that , excluding the cost of energy , food , alcohol and tobacco , core inflation increased to 1 percent from 0.8 percent.

    Pound fell against the dollar earlier , which was associated with the release of a weak report on consumer confidence in Britain. Results of recent studies that have been presented by GfK NOP, showed that confidence among British consumers fell in November , registering with the second monthly deterioration , as they were more concerned about the state of their finances . These results add early signs that the recovery of the UK economy , built largely on consumer spending , could lose momentum in the fourth quarter of this year , as households begin to reduce their costs. Bank of England officials warn that prolonged pressure on workers' incomes due to rising wages lag behind inflation , could undermine the recovery , if the company also will increase their spending in the near future .

    Today's data showed that the index of sentiment among households fell unexpectedly in November - to the level of -12 points , compared with -11 points in October . Many economists expect that the value of this indicator will be slightly improved , and reaching -8 points .

    Nevertheless , in the GfK NOP reported that the loss of confidence in November was small. Sentiments among the population are much more optimistic than in the previous year was recorded . Note that the November decline was associated with deterioration of the two sub-indices - personal financial situation and willingness to make major purchases . But despite this , households have become a little more confident to look at the prospects for the economy in general .

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.25

    EUR/JPY Y138.75

    EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3585, $1.3590, $1.3595

    GBP/USD $1.6205, $1.6300

    AUD/USD $0.9090

    AUD/JPY Y94.00

  • 13:30

    Canada: GDP (m/m) , September +0.3% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 13:15

    European session: European currency traded mixed against the dollar

    Data

    00:05 UK consumer confidence index from Gfk October -11 -8 -12

    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit m / m in October +0.3% +0.4% +0.5 %

    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit , y / y +3.3 % +3.5 October % +3.5 %

    05:00 Japan Bookmark new homes , y / y in October +19.4 % +5.5 % +7.1 %

    07:00 UK house price index from Nationwide, m / m +1.0 % in November +0.6% +0.6%

    07:00 UK house price index from Nationwide, y / y +5.8 % in November +0.6% +6.5 %

    7:00 Germany Retail sales in October , seasonally adjusted -0.4% +0.5 % -0.8 %

    7:00 Germany Retail sales unadjusted y / y in October +0.2% +1.5 % -0.2 %

    7:45 France Consumer spending in October -0.1% +0.3 % -0.2 %

    7:45 France Consumer Spending y / y in October -0.1% +0.1 % -0.1 %

    09:30 UK volume of net loans to individuals billion in October 1.4 2.1 1.7

    09:30 UK approved applications for mortgage loans , thousand 66.7 68.5 67.7 October

    10:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in October 12.2 % 12.2 % 12.1%

    10:00 Eurozone CPI y / y (preliminary data ) November +0.7 % +0.8% +0.9 %

    10:00 Switzerland index of leading economic indicators from the KOF November 1.72 1.82 1.85


    The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar , while demonstrating a slight increase . Note that the pair continues to rise the third consecutive week , recovering from the levels reached after the rate cut by the ECB. Risk appetite and skepticism about " transparency policy " ECB support the single currency. Today's favorable reports on inflation and unemployment also helped a little growth.

    In the statistical agency of the European Union reported that the number of people out of work in 17 countries in the euro zone declined unexpectedly in October , departing from its highest level since April 2011 . According to the report , the unemployment rate in the euro area fell last month to 12.1 %, compared with 12.2% in September, which was a record .

    Furthermore, the data showed that the number of people without jobs fell by 61,000 in October , which is largely due to the decline was 41 000 in France - the second largest economy in the monetary area . Nevertheless , without a job are still 19,298 million, 615 thousand more than in the same month last year. We also recall that the last time the unemployment rate fell in 2011 . Decline in unemployment was a surprise to many economists , as they expected that this figure will remain unchanged. But , even though the recession , unemployment remains very high by international standards .

    Meanwhile, another report submitted showed that inflation in the eurozone rose to 0.9 percent in November . Note that these data are still preliminary revenge . Many experts expect that inflation will rise by 0.8 percent. Recall that in October of this indicator increased by 0.7 percent. However , despite this growth , inflation remains below the target level of the European Central Bank "below but close to 2 percent " for the tenth consecutive month. We also learned that , excluding the cost of energy , food , alcohol and tobacco , core inflation increased to 1 percent from 0.8 percent.

    Pound fell against the dollar, which was associated with the release of a weak report on consumer confidence in Britain. Results of recent studies that have been presented by GfK NOP, showed that confidence among British consumers fell in November , registering with the second monthly deterioration , as they were more concerned about the state of their finances . These results add early signs that the recovery of the UK economy , built largely on consumer spending , could lose momentum in the fourth quarter of this year , as households begin to reduce their costs. Bank of England officials warn that prolonged pressure on workers' incomes due to rising wages lag behind inflation , could undermine the recovery , if the company also will increase their spending in the near future .

    Today's data showed that the index of sentiment among households fell unexpectedly in November - to the level of -12 points , compared with -11 points in October . Many economists expect that the value of this indicator will be slightly improved , and reaching -8 points .

    Nevertheless , in the GfK NOP reported that the loss of confidence in November was small. Sentiments among the population are much more optimistic than in the previous year was recorded .

    Note that the November decline was associated with deterioration of the two sub-indices - personal financial situation and willingness to make major purchases . But , despite this , households have become a little more confident to look at the prospects for the economy in general .


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is in the range $ 1.3695 -$ 1.3722

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6312 from $ 1.6375

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair dropped to Y102.11 from Y102.60


    At 13:30 GMT , Canada will announce the change in the volume of GDP in September.


  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3690/710, $1.3660/65, $1.3650, $1.3620/30

    Bids $1.3596, $1.3570/60, $1.3564, $1.3525/15, $1.3490/80


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6480, $1.6450, $1.6410, $1.6400, $1.6380/90, $1.6375

    Bids  $1.6280/75, $1.6260/55, $1.6240, $1.6220


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9240/50, $0.9204, $0.9200, $0.9180, $0.9150, $0.9114/21

    Bids $0.9050, $0.9045, $0.9000, $0.8972


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8430, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8395/400, stg0.8352

    Bids stg0.8333, stg0.8300, stg0.8285, stg0.8258


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y103.25, Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.61

    Bids Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.50, Y101.20


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y140.50, Y140.20, Y140.00, Y139.75/80, Y139.45/50

    Bids Y138.97, Y138.60/50, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.71


  • 10:13

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.25

    EUR/JPY Y138.75

    EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3585, $1.3590, $1.3595

    GBP/USD $1.6205, $1.6300

    AUD/USD $0.9090

    AUD/JPY Y94.00

  • 10:02

    Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , October 12.1% (forecast 12.2%)

  • 10:01

    Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, November +0.9% (forecast +0.8%)

  • 10:00

    Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicator, November 1.85 (forecast 1.82)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: Net Lending to Individuals, bln, October 1.7 (forecast 2.1)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Mortgage Approvals, October 67.7 (forecast 68.5)

  • 07:45

    France: Consumer spending , October -0.2% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 07:45

    France: Consumer spending, y/y, October -0.1% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 07:23

    Asian session: The euro headed for a third monthly gain against the yen and the dollar

    00:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -11 -8 -12

    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.4% +0.5%

    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +3.3% +3.5% +3.5%

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +19.4% +5.5% +7.1%


    The euro headed for a third monthly gain against the yen and the dollar as investors pared bets for additional easing by the European Central Bank ahead of the region’s inflation data today. Consumer prices in the euro region probably rose 0.8 percent in November from a year ago, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the European Union statistics office data today. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate this month after inflation in the currency bloc slowed to a four-year low in October.

    The 17-nation euro climbed to a five-year high versus Japan’s currency after a report yesterday showed consumer prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, accelerated more than forecast. Data yesterday showed the inflation rate in Germany, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, rose to 1.6 percent this month, more than the 1.3 percent median forecast of analysts polled by Bloomberg.

    The yen was set for a fourth monthly decline against the greenback after Japanese government data showed inflation quickened. Japanese consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.9 percent in October from a year ago, the most since November 2008, statistics bureau said in Tokyo today.

    Australia’s dollar dropped versus all its major peers as the government’s rejection of a planned foreign takeover raised concern about investment flows into the country.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3620

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6375

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.60


    The US markets return to the fray Friday, although there will only be a half-day session as many market participants look to bridge into the weekend. However, there is a full calendar in Europe, kicking off at 0700GMT with the release of the German October retail sales and third quarter wholesale sales data. French data will cross the wires at 0745GMT, when the October consumer spending and October PPI numbers will be published. At 0800GMT, the Swiss November KOF economic barometer numbers will cross the wires. At 0815GMT, ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch will deliver a speech on financial market policy, in Frankfurt. Italian November flash HICP numbers will cross the wires at 0900GMT. Euro area data will be released at 1000GMT, when the important November flash HICP data will cross the wires, along with the October unemployment data. At 1300GMT, Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret will sit on a panel at the SAFE conference on financial market policy, in Frankfurt. Back in Europe, at 1500GMT, Bundesbank Board member Joachim Nagel will take part in a discussion in Frankfurt on "What's up for banks." At 1630GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco speaks at the SAFE conference on financial market policy.

  • 07:01

    United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index , November +0.6% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 07:01

    United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index, y/y, November +6.5% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 07:00

    Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , October -0.8% (forecast +0.5%)

  • 07:00

    Germany: Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y, October -0.2% (forecast +1.5%)

  • 06:02

    Currencies. Daily history for Nov 28'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3605 +0,20%

    GBP/USD $1,6343 +0,35%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9052 -0,24%

    USD/JPY Y102,32 +0,18%

    EUR/JPY Y139,19 +0,35%

    GBP/JPY Y167,20 +0,51%

    AUD/USD $0,9099 +0,24%

    NZD/USD $0,8117 -0,38%

    USD/CAD C$1,0580 -0,12%

  • 06:01

    Schedule for today, Friday, Nov 29’2013:

    0:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -11 -8

    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.4%

    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +3.3% +3.5%

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +19.4% +5.5%

    07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index November +1.0% +0.6%

    07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y November +5.8% +6.2%

    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October -0.4% +0.5%

    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October +0.2% +1.5%

    07:45 France Consumer spending October -0.1% +0.3%

    07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y October -0.1% +0.1%

    09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln October 1.4 2.1

    09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals October 66.7 68.5

    10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 12.2% 12.2%

    10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) November +0.7% +0.8%

    10:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator November 1.72 1.82

    13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) September +0.3% +0.1%

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